AUD/NZD loses key levels on quiet Monday, focus on Australian GDP data

• On Monday, the AUD/NZD dipped below key technical levels, with the 100 and 200-day SMAs breached.
• Current focus is on GDP data from Australia, expected to remain steady.
• New Zealand’s manufacturing activity Q1 data on Friday will be closely watched.

The AUD/NZD echoed a bearish technical outlook on Monday, falling below key levels towards 1.0805 as markets await mid-tier data from both nations on a quiet economic schedule at the beginning of the week.

In Australia, markets will anticipate Wednesday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. A steady growth of 0.2% QoQ is expected, while a 1.2% YoY rate is projected, a slight dip compared to the Q4 YoY rate of 1.5%. That being said, the AUD’s losses may be limited, thanks to the strong Australian Q1 CPI inflation data and another robust April reading, which hints at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) being one of the last G10 central banks to cut rates in this cycle.

On the other hand, New Zealand will focus on releasing its Q1 manufacturing activity data on Friday. Should the manufacturing output reflect the same upward trend, it might further slow the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s RBNZ's rate cuts. The market now forecasts a 75% probability of the first cut happening as late as November.

AUD/NZD technical analysis

Technical indicators have turned bearish. On Monday, sellers oversaw the breaching of the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The RSI heads towards the oversold territory, echoing a similar sentiment, while the MACD histogram continues to confirm this downward momentum with its persistent formation of red bars.

Despite the bearish patterns unfolding, the focus will be whether the downward trend can be sustained or if there will be an upward correction as markets continue to assess the upcoming economic data releases.

AUD/NZD daily chart