New Zealand 2024 Budget: Treasury sees inflation falling to below 3% in Q3 2024, to 2% around 2026
Source Fxstreet
New Zealand (NZ) Finance Minister Nicola Willis presented the government’s annual Budget report for 2024, with key highlights enlisted below.
NZ sees 2023/24 operating balance before gains, losses NZ$-11.07 bln (HYEFU NZ$-9.32 bln).
NZ sees 2024/25 GDP 1.7% (HYEFU 1.5%).
NZ government forecasts return to obegal surplus in 2027/28 (HYEFU 2026/27).
NZ sees 2023/24 net debt 43.1% of GDP (HYEFU 43.5%).
NZ unemployment rate seen at 5.2% in 2024/25 (hyefu 5.2%).
Determined to return obegal to surplus in 2027-28.
Tax relief fully funded from savings, revenue initiatives.
NZ treasury sees NZ GDP contracting in H1 2024, growth in H2 2024.
NZ treasury sees inflation falling to below 3% in Q3 2024, to 2% around 2026.
Separately, New Zelanad’s Debt Management Office (DMO) said that the 2024/25 gross bond issuance increases to NZ$38 bln from NZ$36 bln in half-year update.
The NZ DMO planned gross bond issuance for four years to June 2028 now totals NZ$126 bln up from NZ$114 bln in half year update.
Market reaction
New Zealand Dollar paid little heed to the Budget release, with NZD/USD lurking flat near 0.6100 at the press time.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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