Silver extends historic rally into 2025 – Société Générale

Silver prices have surged sharply in 2025, up almost 150% and most industry analysts argue for fundamentally justified reasons, Société Générale's analysts note.

Holiday volatility amplifies price swings

"We expected the holiday period to experience bouts of extreme volatility given the lower liquidity, but prices were expected to rise over the holiday period. Specifically, in our previous CCA (click the link above), we forecasted a 7% increase in Silver prices before and after the 2026 New Year. So far, over this period, prices are currently up 14.5% despite a significant one-day pullback on Monday of this week."

"Silver prices did take a significant downward presumably because of another increase in margin levels at the CME during a very illiquid time of year, and positions being adjusted, with initial margins jumping $3,000/oz from $22,000/oz to $25,000/oz. This followed an increase on Dec 12th, 2025, with a 10% increase in margins to the $22,000/oz level."

"Silver looks expensive when viewed linearly; when viewed in logarithmic terms, it tells the same compounding story that’s been running, in Silver’s case, in the last 25 years but this year’s increase does look exceptional, even in logarithmic form."