China Q1 GDP data could suggest 2024 growth target of 5% is very ambitious – TD Securities

Source Fxstreet

Apr 15, 2024 10:29

TD Securities analysts preview the upcoming data releases from China.

Authorities may step up more fiscal action soon

"We expect China industrial production and retail sales to miss to the downside in March despite the seemingly upbeat March PMIs. We pencil in a 5.1% y/y growth in industrial production, below consensus at 6% and tracking the big downside surprise in March exports. The exports outturn suggest that production may retreat as the Lunar New Year distortion fades and underlying production momentum may not be as strong as initially predicted. While March manufacturing PMI jumped back to expansion, it could take some time for manufacturers to translate that optimism into action."

"We also anticipate retail sales to print at 4% y/y (cons: 5%) as the contraction in imports and weak core inflation in March suggest downbeat spending over the month."

"Factoring in our March forecasts, we project Q1 GDP at 4.5% y/y (cons: 5%), which could reignite speculation that China's official 2024 growth target of 5% is indeed a very ambitious target and the authorities may step up more fiscal action soon."

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PBoC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1016 vs 7.1002 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.1016 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1002 and 7.2202 Reuters estimates.

Source Fxstreet

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.1016 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1002 and 7.2202 Reuters estimates.

US NFP Forecast: Nonfarm Payrolls gains expected to cool in April Following Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements, attention turns toward the high-impact Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, slated for release on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

Source Fxstreet

Following Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements, attention turns toward the high-impact Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, slated for release on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

BoE's Pill: Time for cutting bank rate remains some way off "The combination of little news and the passage of time have brought a bank rate cut somewhat closer," Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Tuesday and added: "The lack of news gives me no reason to depart from my baseline that the time for cutting bank rate remained some way off." Key takeaways "Caution against expectations that the Bernanke report will lead to a rapid change in how UK monetary policy is presented." "How, when, I would vote for a bank rate

Source Fxstreet

"The combination of little news and the passage of time have brought a bank rate cut somewhat closer," Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Tuesday and added: "The lack of news gives me no reason to depart from my baseline that the time for cutting bank rate remained some way off." Key takeaways "Caution against expectations that the Bernanke report will lead to a rapid change in how UK monetary policy is presented." "How, when, I would vote for a bank rate

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