USD/CAD sits near weekly top, just below 1.3900 ahead of Canadian Retail sales

• USD/CAD regains positive traction on Friday amid the emergence of some USD buying.
• Subdued Crude Oil prices and domestic political uncertainty undermine the Loonie.
• The fundamental backdrop warrants caution for bulls ahead of the Canadian election.

The USD/CAD pair retains its positive bias through the first half of the European session on Friday and currently trades near the top end of the weekly range. Spot prices, however, remain below the 1.3900 round-figure mark and well within striking distance of a three-year low touched earlier this week.

The US Dollar (USD) attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's modest decline and draws support from Thursday's mostly upbeat US macro data. Moreover, the growing tensions between the US and Canada, along with the domestic political uncertainty ahead of the federal election on Monday, weighs on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, hopes for a quick resolution and a de-escalation of the US-China trade war remain supportive of a positive risk tone. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that trade talks between the US and China are underway. Furthermore, China is reportedly mulling to suspend its 125% tariff on some US imports. This, along with bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), might cap the USD.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he would support an interest rate cut if tariffs start weighing on the job market. Separately, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that a rate cut as soon as June could be possible if clear evidence of economic direction is obtained. Moreover, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year,

This might hold back traders from positioning for any meaningful USD appreciation and cap gains for the USD/CAD pair. The downside, however, seems cushioned on the back of subdued Crude Oil prices, which could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie. Traders now look to Canadian Retail Sales for some impetus. Nevertheless, the currency pair remains on track to end in the green for the first time in eight weeks.