PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2055 vs. 7.2069 previous

US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.

Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.

A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.

Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.