Four reasons why USD's current carry advantage is set to transition into a headwind – BofA
Source Fxstreet
Economists at the Bank of America analyze the potential shift from the US Dollar's (USD) carry advantage to a significant headwind.
Challenging period ahead for the USD
The Fed is predicted to be one of the initial G10 central banks to reduce rates, challenging the USD's carry advantage.
Given the higher starting point of US rates, their potential reduction could significantly narrow the rate differentials with other currencies, diminishing the USD's attractiveness.
The USD stands as one of the most overvalued currencies in the G10, a factor that could amplify its vulnerability in a rate-cutting environment.
Lower interest rates in the US typically boost global risk appetite, a dynamic that historically benefits currencies other than the USD.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Japanese Yen rallies to February 18 high as upbeat wage data and GDP lift BoJ hike betsThe USD/JPY pair declines for the second straight day – also marking the fourth day of a fall in the previous five – and sinks to its lowest level since February 18, around mid-153.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday.
The USD/JPY pair declines for the second straight day – also marking the fourth day of a fall in the previous five – and sinks to its lowest level since February 18, around mid-153.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday.
Brent holds above $100 as tanker attacks tighten supply — but four forces are capping the rallyBrent crude is holding above $100 a barrel for a second session, its first close above the level since late July, as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz squeeze an already tight physical market. Yet the rally has been gradual: 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output is still shut in, diesel is at a record, and forecasts now range from $74 to $100.
Brent crude is holding above $100 a barrel for a second session, its first close above the level since late July, as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz squeeze an already tight physical market. Yet the rally has been gradual: 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output is still shut in, diesel is at a record, and forecasts now range from $74 to $100.
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
As of the Asian session on September 11, gold prices (XAUUSD) remained in weak consolidation today after dropping sharply to near $4,300 on Thursday, with the latest price trading around
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Related Instrument
