Dollar could edge a little lower if benign inflation trends are confirmed – ING
Source Fxstreet
Today sees one of the key event risks of the week – the annual US CPI benchmarks revisions. Economists at ING analyze how the annual update of seasonal adjustment (SA) factors for consumer price inflation could impact the US Dollar (USD).
Was the late 2023 disinflation trend real?
Either an upward revision will prompt a modest back-up in short-term US rates and prove Dollar-supportive. Or no material revisions can provide the Fed with confidence that last year’s disinflation trend was a true one – bolstering the soft-landing scenario and softening the Dollar.
Given the market’s conviction call for lower rates this year, risks to the Dollar might be greater to the downside today. And this move could be backed up by contained January CPI readings next week, where we see headline at 0.2% MoM and core at 0.3%.
103.20 is the risk for DXY on a break back below 104.00.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Japanese Yen rallies to February 18 high as upbeat wage data and GDP lift BoJ hike betsThe USD/JPY pair declines for the second straight day – also marking the fourth day of a fall in the previous five – and sinks to its lowest level since February 18, around mid-153.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday.
The USD/JPY pair declines for the second straight day – also marking the fourth day of a fall in the previous five – and sinks to its lowest level since February 18, around mid-153.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday.
US dollar clings to nine-week lows near 98.4 as Brent nears $100 and the yen hits a seven-month high — five events to watch todayThe dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
The dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
Brent holds above $100 as tanker attacks tighten supply — but four forces are capping the rallyBrent crude is holding above $100 a barrel for a second session, its first close above the level since late July, as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz squeeze an already tight physical market. Yet the rally has been gradual: 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output is still shut in, diesel is at a record, and forecasts now range from $74 to $100.
Brent crude is holding above $100 a barrel for a second session, its first close above the level since late July, as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz squeeze an already tight physical market. Yet the rally has been gradual: 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output is still shut in, diesel is at a record, and forecasts now range from $74 to $100.
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
As of the Asian session on September 11, gold prices (XAUUSD) remained in weak consolidation today after dropping sharply to near $4,300 on Thursday, with the latest price trading around
Related Instrument
