NZD/USD rallies despite weak New Zealand GDP and Fed hawkish hold

• NZD/USD climbs as the US Dollar weakens after the Fed holds rates and signals no rush to cut.
• New Zealand Q4 GDP disappoints, rising 0.2% QoQ and 1.3% YoY, missing market expectations.
• US Initial Jobless Claims fall to 205K, beating forecasts, but fail to support the USD.

The NZD/USD pair surges to the 0.5870 level, up 1.30% on Thursday amid broad weakness of the US Dollar (USD) despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) holding decision the previous day and weak economic data in New Zealand .

Statistics New Zealand released GDP figures showing a growth of 0.2% QoQ in the fourth quarter, below the 0.4% expected and down from 0.9% in the previous quarter. On a YoY basis, growth came in at 1.3%, missing forecasts of 1.7% but slightly higher than the prior reading of 1.1%. Despite these figures, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains resilient.

In the United States (US), the Fed kept interest rates on hold at 3.50%-3.75%, with Chairman Jerome Powell setting a high bar for a rate cut, saying the Fed is in no rush to ease policy, particularly amid risks of higher inflation driven by energy prices.

On another note, US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 205K in the week ending March 14, below the 215K expected and the previous 213K, signaling a resilient labor market.

Short-term technical analysis:

In the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5873. The near-term bias leans mildly bullish as price extends above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.5840 while still trading beneath the declining 100-period SMA around 0.5902, outlining a recovery within a broader downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has advanced to 58, showing improving upside momentum after rebounding from sub-40 readings and reinforcing the latest push higher.

Immediate support emerges at 0.5872, aligned with the recent breakout area, followed by 0.5830, where prior horizontal support converges with the 20-period SMA to form a secondary floor. Further downside protection is seen at 0.5798 if the pair slips back into the lower range. On the upside, initial resistance stands at 0.5892 ahead of the 100-period SMA cluster around 0.5902, and a sustained break above this zone would open the path toward higher levels beyond the recent consolidation band.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)