DXY: Head and shoulders pattern appears to have formed – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) traded a subdued range overnight in absence of key catalyst. Fedspeaks go into blackout so that puts the focus on data before FOMC next Thursday (19 December). DXY was last at 106.35, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

A bearish setup arises on the charts

“This week, we have CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. A 25bp cut is more or less a done deal for December meeting unless US CPI unexpectedly surprises a lot to the upside. We would be keen to see the dot plot guidance for 2025. Fed fund futures are implying about 3 cuts for 2025, slightly less than the previous dot plot of 4 cuts that was penciled in for 2025.”

“Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI is flat. Head and shoulders pattern appears to have formed with DXY testing the neckline (which was respected last Friday). This is typically a bearish setup. A decisive break below neckline should see bears gather momentum.”

“Support at 105 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to November high), 104.60 (50 DMA) and 104.10 (200 DMA, 50% fibo). Resistance at 106.70 (second shoulder).”