USD: And now we wait – Commerzbank

In 1845, the US Congress decreed that presidential elections should always be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The date was chosen to fall after the autumn harvest but before the onset of winter, which could make travel difficult. It also had to be a Tuesday so that people could use the Monday to travel. And so it is that today we are all looking to the US to give us our first idea of how the election will turn out. And why some of us will either be going to bed very late tonight or getting up very early tomorrow, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

All eyes on US elections

“If Harris wins, expect temporary USD weakness. If Trump wins, the opposite is true. And while the first polls will close at 11pm GMT, in Georgia, the first potential swing state, voting lasts until Midnight. More information will come in when North Carolina and Ohio close there polls at 0:30am. And in the first ‘must-win’ states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan voting will go on until at 2am.”

“On the other hand, there is nothing really new to say as the polls have not even opened yet and the forecasts are telling us no more than they have for the past few days: it simply will be very close. As such, the currency market is likely to be in a bit of a wait and see mode today.”

“Everyone will sit tight through the night and not make any big bets. Those who needed to hedge should have done so by now, and those who are sure of themselves have probably already taken their positions. So for today, all we can do is wait.”