DXY: Payrolls data eyed – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) is up for the 4th consecutive session overnight as US data surprised to the upside while geopolitical tensions in the middle east remains elevated. DXY was last at 101.93, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Daily momentum is bullish

“ISM services, prices paid and new orders were stronger though employment slipped into contractionary territory. Focus today turns to US payrolls. Consensus is looking for +150kprint for NFP (vs. +142k prior), unemployment rate and hourly earnings to hold steady at 4.2% and 3.8% y/y, respectively.”

“Markets may unwind some of its dovish bets if labor-related data comes in hotter, and this may continue to add to USD rebound momentum in the near term. But given that the USD has corrected somewhat this week, the risks for the USD can be symmetric. A downside print in NFP (i.e. cooler job market) may see recent USD gains fade.”

“Daily momentum is bullish while rise in RSI moderated. Some consolidation is likely intra-day. Resistance at 101.90 (50 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low), 102.50 levels. Near term support at 101 (21 DMA), 100.20 (recent low).”