US equities mix on Wednesday as indexes risk a pullback

Source Fxstreet
  • US stocks spread in the mid-week, off of record highs.
  • Tech stocks dragged higher as markets await Thursday’s economic data.
  • Early earnings glee proved temporary after US PMI beats threaten Fed rate cut hopes.

US equity indexes came in mixed on Wednesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shedding almost a hundred points while the NASDAQ 100 saw a boost from another tech sector ramp-up fueled by chipmakers, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 (SP500) major index saw a thin gain into a fourth straight record close.

The early US session kicked off with earnings optimism in US equities, but hope quickly cooled after the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January outran market forecasts, trimming odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut coming sooner rather than later. The US Manufacturing PMI component printed at a 15-month high, returning to expansionary territory above the 50.0 level, coming in at 50.3 compared to the forecast steady hold at 47.9. The Services PMI also printed above expectations at 52.9 versus the forecast backslide from 51.4 to 51.0.

Investors are now pivoting to face heavy data due in the back half of the trading week with Thursday’s US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print forecast to shrink to 2% from 4.9% for the year ended in the fourth quarter, and Friday brings another round of Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index figures.

Friday’s PCE for December is expected to tick upwards slightly from 0.1% to 0.2%, while the annualized December PCE reading is forecast to come in at 3.0% compared to the previous period’s 3.2%.

The DJIA closed lower on Wednesday, shedding 99.06 points to close down 0.26% at $37,806.39 while the NASDAQ 100 climbed 55.97 points to close up 0.36% at $15,481.92.

The S&P 500 saw thin gains, climbing a scant 3.95 points to end the day at a new record high close of $4,868.55, up 0.08% after hitting a new record high above the $4,900.00 handle.

S&P 500 Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 saw a late-day pullback after crossing the $4,900.00 handle for the first time ever, heading lower into the overnight session after wrapping up the US session at a fourth straight record close.

The S&P 500 continues to trade well above near-term technical indicators into record chart territory, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA at $4,675.00 and $4,425.00 respectively.

S&P 500 Hourly Chart

S&P 500 Daily Chart

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 22, Thu
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
placeholder
Big Tech's $800 billion AI bill faces its first real test — free cash flow is the judgeAlphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 26, Mon
Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
placeholder
Anthropic files for a $2 trillion IPO — the $80.7 billion loss is the decoy, the $450 billion compute bill is the riskAnthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 27, Tue
Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
placeholder
Fed October Rate Decision Preview: Rate Hike Pause Has Become Consensus, How Will US Stocks, Dollar, and Gold React?The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
Author  TradingKey
Oct 27, Tue
The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
placeholder
Brent's $115 front month sits $4.6 above January — the $14 spread to WTI is the supply-risk premiumDecember Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
Author  Irene Q.
19 hours ago
December Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote