DXY: Under pressure from the futures market – DBS

The Dollar Index (DXY) depreciated 1.7% in the first fortnight of July to 104.09. Fed officials have become more confident about US inflation resuming its decline, DBS senior FX strategist Philip Wee.

DXY depreciates 1.7% in the first two weeks of July

“DXY depreciated 1.7% in the first fortnight of July to 104.09, back to early June lows. The Greenback is under pressure from the futures market, increasing the probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start lowering rates in September to 94.5% vs. 56.5% at the last FOMC meeting on June 12.” 

“Fed officials have become more confident about US inflation resuming its decline after a sticky first quarter. CPI inflation fell a third month and posted its first negative month-on-month reading since May 2020. The Fed’s favourite inflation gauges, the PCE deflators, should mirror the softer CPI readings.”

“PCE inflation fell to 2.6% YoY in May, hitting the Fed’s forecast for 4Q24. Core inflation was more impressive by declining to 2.6%, below the Fed’s 2.8% forecast.”