DXY: Mild upside risk – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) consolidated near 5-day high, but price action remains lacklustre. DXY last at 99 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

2-way trades likely in absence of fresh catalyst

"Risk sentiments stay curtailed amid heightened geopolitical tensions. US is raising stakes ahead of showdown with China, in considering restriction of exports to China made with or containing US software. Meanwhile Trump lifted key restriction on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles allowing Ukraine to step up attacks inside Russia, which Trump later denied."

"US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that US will announce 'pickup' in Russia sanctions soon. Elsewhere, the meltdown in precious metals is also weighing on sentiments. Near term, DXY may continue to consolidate near the upper bound of recent range. Daily momentum shows tentative signs of turning mild bullish while RSI rose.

"2-way trades likely in absence of fresh catalyst. Resistance at 99.10 levels (50% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low), 99.80 (61.8% fibo), 100.80 levels (200 DMA). Support at 98.40 (38.2% fibo, 21 DMA) and 98 levels (50, 100 DMAs) and 97.60 (23.6% fibo). CPI release awaits on Fri."