USD: A point on the US labor market report – Commerzbank

One more point on today's data: weak employment growth would not only have implications for US monetary policy, it would also indicate whether the dismissal of the head of the responsible statistics office could have an impact on data collection, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

USD faces significant headwinds

"Let us remember that US President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, last month in response to the surprisingly weak labor market report. One of the main reasons for this was the sharp downward revision of employment growth in previous months."

"Our US experts have already warned that the annual benchmark revision, which led to a sharp downward correction in employment last year, is due for publication on 9th September. They also see signs that actual employment dynamics are weaker than previously reported by the BLS."

"In this respect, the dollar faces significant headwinds, as the figures could give new impetus to speculation about interest rate cuts. In contrast, given the political pressure, a surprisingly strong report should be treated with caution."