Morgan Stanley raises Nvidia, chip giants' price forecast ahead of August earnings

Morgan Stanley just lifted its price target on Nvidia to $200, up from $170, saying the stock could climb another 14% before the chipmaker posts its earnings on August 28.

That note came from Joseph Moore, the firm’s analyst, who has kept an overweight rating on the stock. The call was based on stronger-than-expected demand from customers, especially around AI workloads, as interest in machine learning and inference computing continues to expand.

“AI strength is exceptional in both supply and demand. All of our data points and contacts are telling us that customers need more compute, and we are seeing a clear acceleration in inference workloads driving that,” Moore wrote on Wednesday.

He also added that the upcoming Blackwell chip cycle could push second-half results higher, as new products roll out across processors, memory, and networking categories. Moore said he’s raising his estimates across his group of AI chip companies, not just Nvidia.

China shipments and AI hardware rollouts expand chipmaker outlook

Nvidia told investors earlier this month that it’s preparing to begin deliveries of its H20 GPUs to China “soon.” This comes after the company said in April that it would take a $5.5 billion charge due to U.S. export restrictions limiting its sales in that region.

Moore acknowledged this in his analysis, saying the renewed activity in China, combined with strong AI demand from cloud customers, adds more tailwinds in the back half of the year.

The rally isn’t isolated to just Nvidia. Advanced Micro Devices, better known as AMD, has also been climbing. Year-to-date, AMD has advanced about 47%, outpacing Nvidia’s 31% gain. Moore, while maintaining an equal-weight rating on AMD, still pushed its price target higher from $121 to $185, implying about 4% more upside.

He wrote that AMD’s Mi350 chip cycle could also bring strong results in the months ahead. “The reinstatement of products for the China market has added a new tailwind for AMD/NVDA in the second half, but our enthusiasm is still centered around the level of demand from the core cloud customers,” Moore said. “We see Nvidia as the biggest winner of that spend, but AMD should also see upside.”

Other chip stocks were also in focus. Moore raised his price target on Broadcom from $270 to $338, keeping his overweight rating on that name too. He noted that most of the expected growth for Broadcom is coming from networking, not chip processors. Broadcom shares are already up 28% this year, benefiting from the broader AI build-out across infrastructure segments.

JPMorgan tracks Nvidia’s August earnings as major market catalyst

While Morgan Stanley is focused on the chip supply side, JPMorgan’s trading desk is eyeing Nvidia’s earnings as the next possible turning point for the stock market. The firm told clients it remains “tactically bullish” even after the S&P 500 climbed 30% from its April 7 low.

That rise pushed the index to record highs last week. But traders at JPMorgan said they’re watching August closely. “NVDA earnings may be a sell-the-news event, cueing the market to take a breather into seasonal weakness,” they wrote in a note on Monday.

JPMorgan listed several reasons for staying optimistic: strong economic data, growing corporate earnings, and signs that the U.S. trade war rhetoric may be cooling. Still, they cautioned that upcoming events could rattle sentiment. This week alone includes the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, the July jobs report on Friday, and Donald Trump’s tariff deadline, also on Friday.

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