Ripple Price Forecast: XRP eyes fractal breakout as Ripple files letter supporting motion for indicative ruling

• XRP declines, targeting the $2.00 support level ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision.
• Ripple has filed a supplemental letter in support of a joint motion with the US SEC for an indicative ruling.
• XRP could trigger a bullish fractal breakout if support around $2.00 holds.

Ripple (XRP) is facing increasing downside risks, as it extends losses 9% from its recent highs at $2.34 while trading around $2.13 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The upside-heavy trend mirrors the lack of conviction among traders in the broader cryptocurrency market, which has seen Bitcoin (BTC) struggle to uphold support above $105,000. 

Meanwhile, the overall sentiment remains relatively calm as interest shifts away from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on interest rates. Experts are in favor of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials holding the rates steady in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

Ripple files supplemental letter supporting motion for indicative ruling

Ripple has filed a supplemental letter in support of its joint motion with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an indicative ruling. The defense attorneys clarified that neither Ripple nor the SEC is requesting Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District Court of New York to revise the "Summary Judgment Order."

Ripple wrote that the indicative ruling will not absolve it of any obligations under the securities laws. The letter emphasized that the joint motion is primarily linked to the reduced penalty, considering the potential appellate risk.

The SEC, in the joint motion, stated that it is "revisiting its fundamental approach to the regulation of digital assets," which led to the regulator dropping cases against several crypto entities, including Binance and Coinbase.

Ripple has urged the court, in line with the SEC's commitment to providing a "clear rule of the road" for the cryptocurrency sector, to acknowledge the mutually agreed-upon settlement of $50 million. 

"Without disturbing the Court's substantive ruling- and while still holding Ripple accountable the settlement would also place Ripple on more comparable footing with other industry participants whose cases were dismissed much earlier in their lifecycle as a matter of SEC discretion," Ripple said as it concluded the letter.

Judge Torres ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million civil penalty in the Summary Judgment, significantly lower than the $2 billion initially sought by the SEC. However, Ripple and the SEC mutually agreed on a $50 million settlement in early May, prompting a joint motion for an indicative ruling.

Technical outlook: XRP bearish ahead of Fed interest rate decision 

Depending on the sentiment likely to follow the Fed decisions on interest rates, a sharp rebound could occur toward resistance highlighted in red on the 4-hour chart below, or the decline could accelerate to test support at $2.00.

A potential bullish reversal is anticipated if support at $2.00 holds and validates a bullish fractal pattern. A fractal refers to a series of consecutive bars on a chart that are repetitive, indicating a potential price reversal.

The XRP price has formed a repetitive pattern since late May, with bars touching support near $2.00 and resistance around $2.34, indicating a potential reversal above the $2.00 level. Such a move has the potential to boost the price upward, targeting highs above resistance at $2.34 and XRP's peak of $2.65 reached in May.

XRP/USDT 4-hour chart

Still, the prevailing position below the 4-hour 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.19, the 100-period EMA at $2.21 and the 200-period EMA at $2.23 largely disadvantages the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) downward slope toward the oversold region indicates bearish momentum. Hence, the need to look out for support at $2.00 and the April low at $1.62.