BTC whales back to stacking Bitcoin, shifting from distribution mode

Glassnode analytics revealed that the largest Bitcoin holders are now back in accumulation after briefly being in distribution. According to the firm, all wallet cohorts indicated varying degrees of buying.

At the time of publication, BTC is currently exchanging hands at $104,786, a 3.75% drop in the last 7 days. The digital asset is also a few percentage points shy of its all-time high of $111.970, but despite its small pullback, BTC is still up 13% this year.

BTC struggles to push past its all-time high

While its price may appear stable on the surface, on-chain data suggests a shift from distribution to accumulation among Bitcoin’s largest holders. Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score, a measure of accumulation behavior across various wallet-size cohorts, suggested the shift in BTC’s market dynamics.

The metric evaluates purchasing strength by combining the size of wallet entities with the volume of BTC acquired over the past 15 days. The firm also noted that wallets associated with exchanges and miners are excluded from the analysis to provide a clearer picture of investor behavior.

Data from Glassnote showed that the strongest wallet activity of cohorts was at the 10-100 groups, while the least wallet activity was below 1 group. The analytics company also noted that both scored 1.0, which is the highest possible. A reading of 1 indicates strong bullish momentum, while a level near 0 points to a market sell-off.

According to Glassnode, wallets holding 10,000 BTC or more, typically classified as whales, were the first to begin accumulating at the market’s April lows at around $75,000. The data indicated that the cohorts are now reducing their holdings while others remain in accumulation mode. The analytics firm suggests a strategic shift, potentially driven by a desire to lock in profits near historic highs or a more cautious outlook on short-term price direction.

Analyst Willy Woo argued that BTC’s failure to sustain its bounce on June 3 suggests a lack of demand at higher levels, with expectations it may fall to the psychological $100K level. Woo also cautioned that buying Bitcoin in six figures may not make sense in the short term, but it might be “one of the best investments you’ll see in your investment career” within the next 10 years.

According to Sygnum Bank’s Monthly Investment Outlook, its analysts noted that institutional adoption and the rise of Bitcoin acquisition vehicles had resulted in a 30% drop in Bitcoin’s liquid supply. The bank’s analysts believe it could create the conditions for demand shocks and upside volatility.

Bitcoin’s price depends on coming macroeconomic developments

Bitfinex analysts predicted that Bitcoin could reach the $120,000 – $125,000 range as early as June, contingent on favorable macroeconomic developments. They believe that if BTC could maintain support above $105K, it could target its forecasted range this month.

The analyst also argued that the rise would not be catalyzed just by the labor market but could be a domino with multiple catalysts prompting the Fed to cut rates faster than expected.

Analysts believe Friday’s U.S. jobs report will catalyze Bitcoin upwards past its current accumulation face. Employment data is expected to show 125,000 to 130,000 new nonfarm payrolls, representing a lower figure from April’s 177,000 additions.

Dr. Kirill Kretov from CoinPanel suggested that a weaker-than-expected NFP figure of a rise in the employment rate could signal a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. He also believes such a scenario might boost risk appetite, driving investor interest toward digital assets like Bitcoin.

Bitfinex also stated that a softer-than-expected NFP report could reinforce the disinflation narrative and prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts sooner, which could be bullish for BTC. The firm also argued that a stronger-than-expected report might delay rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and possibly exerting selling momentum on Bitcoin.

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