Solana Price Forecast: 1.4 million SOL un-staked in 24-hours, $150 breakdown or $200K breakout?

• Solana price tumbles below $170 on Thursday, cutting gains for the past seven days to single digits. 
• SOL’s latest downswing coincides with 1.4 million SOL withdrawals from staking contracts.  
• Corresponding declines in SOL futures Open Interest and trading volumes signal disinterest among bulls. 

Solana price dips 3.8% on Thursday, trading at $169 at press time, with weekly timeframe gains slashed to single digits.

On-chain data trends show SOL investors have unstaked over 1.4 million SOL this week, which often dampens bullish momentum.

With $4 billion in SOL futures liquidated in the last 24 hours, can short-term traders in the futures markets salvage the flailing SOL price rally and avert a breakdown below $150? 

Solana (SOL) tumbles below $170 support as bullish catalysts subside 

Solana (SOL) posted significant losses on Thursday, as the market cooled down from a positive start to the week.

Earlier in the week, SOL price posted two consecutive days in profit, crossing the $184 mark on Tuesday for the first time since Trump’s crypto strategic reserve announcement in March.  

Solana price action, May 15, 2025 | Source: TradingView

In terms of internal catalysts, bullish momentum surrounding SOL ETFs and institutional demand from the likes of DeFi Development company which recently upped its strategic SOL holdings to $100 million. 

Facing intense rejection at the $185, Solana price has now tumbled as low as $169 on Thursday, reflecting up to 9.7% intraday losses according to TradingView data culled from the Binance exchange. 

Why is Solana price down today? 

Solana’s 4% price dip on Wednesday is linked to 3 major bearish factors, ranging from a cautious outlook surrounding top-ranked altcoins, rapid staking withdrawals, and rapid derivative market liquidations. 

1. Solana’s 4% price dip aligns with layer-1 altcoin sell-offs

Solana’s sell-side pressure aligns with synchronized negative showing seen across top layer-1 altcoins.

Top 10 cryptocurrencies performance, May 15, 2025 | Coingecko

 According to Coingecko data, Ethereum fell 2.7%, floating above the $2,500 level at press time, while XRP and Cardano (ADA) are also posting 4% losses apiece.

2. Investors unstaked $236M worth of SOL this week

Further exacerbating the bearish narrative, on-chain data shows that investors have been unstaking large amounts of SOL in the past week, a move that often precedes profit-taking trends. 

Solana staking flows, May 15, 2025 | Source: StakingRewards.com

As depicted above, Blockchain analytics firm StakingRewards shows how Solana’s staking deposits dipped by 1.4 million SOL from 392.3 million on May 7 to 390.9 million SOL at the time of writing on Thursday.

Valued at the current prices of $169 per coin, investors effectively withdrew over $236 million from Solana staking contracts in the past week. 

Such large-scale staking withdrawals intensify sell-side pressure as large amounts of previously locked coins trickle into the circulating supply. This may explain why SOL failed to advance above the critical $185 support earlier this week. 

What’s Next for Solana price action? 

Solana price decline on Thursday could extend into the coming trading sessions as over $236 million of newly unstaked SOL trickled into exchanges.

However, it's important to note that Bitcoin price has now held steady above $100,000 for seven consecutive days of trading, the first time since January 2025.

If Bitcoin’s resilience continues to anchor the broader crypto market sentiment, its SOL traders could halt the sell-off and begin seeking re-entry opportunities. 

More so, the US SEC’s scheduled date for altcoin ETFs verdict on June 16 is now 30 days away. 

With PolyMarkets bettors pricing in 82% approval odds, Solana could begin to attract pre-emptive demand from investors looking to front-run the potential approval verdict   

Solana technical price analysis: Bullish pennant highlights $212 upside target if $140 support holds

Solana’s recent retracement to $168.85 (-4.41%) marks a critical retest within a still-valid bullish structure. As seen below, SOL rice action broke out of a textbook bullish pennant on May 8, confirmed by strong bullish volume and a daily candle that closed well above the upper trendline. 

That breakout propelled SOL into multi-month peaks at $188.69 before stalling. The current 9.67% single-day decline, while significant, has yet to invalidate the bullish setup, as Solana price still trades well above the pennant apex near $150.

Solana technical price analysis, May 15, 2025 | Source: TradingView

More so, with BTC consolidating above $100,000 for the seventh consecutive day, this macro-anchoring gives room for SOL to consolidate above key levels as bulls await the next market catalyst. 

On the downside, short-term profit-taking is evident, especially amid the recent 2 million SOL staking withdrawals. From a technical perspective, bearish invalidation would only occur below the pennant base around $140.