Bitcoin Balance On Exchanges Shrinks – Supply Shock Ahead?

Bitcoin is holding firm around the $104,000 mark after a sharp rally driven by days of sustained buying pressure and renewed market optimism. Bulls regained control when BTC reclaimed the $90,000 level in late April, reversing months of aggressive selling that had weighed on price action. The shift in sentiment has been clear, with bullish momentum building quickly and pushing the market back into key supply zones.

Supporting this trend, on-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that over 110,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past month. Historically, large outflows from centralized platforms signal growing investor confidence and reduced sell-side liquidity—two key components of strong upward trends. This behavior often precedes major rallies, as long-term holders tighten supply while sidelining coins from near-term trading.

Now, with Bitcoin trading just below all-time highs, the market appears to be entering a new phase. Investors are watching closely as BTC consolidates above $100K, with analysts suggesting that the current structure sets the stage for another leg higher. If exchange withdrawals continue and sentiment stays bullish, a break toward the $109K all-time high could come sooner than expected.

Bitcoin Faces Final Resistance Before Price Discovery

Bitcoin is now preparing to test uncharted territory after enduring months of heavy selling pressure and persistent market skepticism. Following a strong recovery since late April, BTC is currently finding resistance around the $105,000 level — a critical price point that could define the next phase of the cycle. This area, just shy of the all-time high, is likely to attract both profit-taking and speculative interest, which may result in increased volatility before a decisive breakout.

If bulls manage to push above the $105K mark, a surge toward new all-time highs would be imminent. However, this level also represents a psychological barrier that could trigger a short-term rejection. Despite this, the underlying data supports a strong bullish outlook.

Top analyst Ali Martinez shared recent on-chain data from CryptoQuant showing that over 110,000 BTC have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges over the past month. Such a large volume of withdrawals historically correlates with accumulation by long-term holders, signaling confidence and reduced selling pressure.

This behavior suggests that the recent rally is not just fueled by speculative hype but also supported by structural shifts in supply. As BTC supply tightens and demand increases, particularly with institutional flows rising, the setup for a sustained breakout strengthens. While some short-term resistance may persist, the broader trend now favors the bulls. If exchange outflows continue at this pace and macro sentiment remains stable, Bitcoin could soon enter a price discovery phase, leaving behind the range that defined its movement for much of 2025.

BTC Price Action Details: Technical Levels

Bitcoin is trading around the $104,000 mark after a powerful breakout rally that started in late April. As shown in the daily chart, BTC surged through the $90K resistance and cleared $100K with strong momentum, but is now facing resistance near $104K–$105K, a zone that previously acted as a major supply region during the February highs.

The chart reveals that BTC is consolidating just below this resistance with a small retrace and declining volume, suggesting a cooling of momentum after several days of aggressive buying. This isn’t necessarily bearish — short pauses are common before retesting key levels, especially when RSI and volume stretch. The 200-day moving average (SMA) and exponential moving average (EMA) remain well below the current price, showing that bulls maintain structural control.

The key levels to watch now are $103,600 (short-term support) and $104,900–$105,500 (resistance zone). A clean break above this range would open the path toward new all-time highs. Conversely, a failure to break higher may lead to a retest of the breakout zone near $100K. Overall, price action remains bullish, but the next few candles will be decisive for short-term trend continuation.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView