ARK Invest raises its 2030 Bitcoin price forecast to $2.4 million

Asset manager ARK Invest has raised its Bitcoin bull case price prediction from $1.5 million to $2.4 million by the end of 2030. The firm argued that the rise in its BTC price target was driven largely by institutional investors and Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance as “digital gold.”

ARK’s Big Ideas 2025 report noted that the firm updated its Bitcoin price target for 2030, projecting bear, base, and bull cases of ~$300,000, ~710,000, and ~$1.5 million per BTC, respectively. The company also bumped its bear and base case scenarios for the price of BTC up to $500,000 and $1.2 million. ARK’s new bear and base targets were bumped up from its $300,000 and $700,000 Bitcoin predictions of February 11.

ARK Invest elevates Bitcoin bull case prediction to $2.4M

We’ve published our bitcoin price forecast through 2030. Read our research from @dpuellARK and share your thoughts.https://t.co/CH7y5EyUjY

— ARK Invest (@ARKInvest) April 24, 2025

ARK Invest has raised its bull case Bitcoin price prediction from $1.5M to $2.4M by the end of 2030. The firm’s research trading analyst David Puell said in an April 24 report that the rise in BTC’s prediction was driven largely by institutional investors and the digital asset’s continued acceptance as “digital gold.”

Puell acknowledged that ARK’s price targets relied on assumptions made regarding the total addressable markets (TAMs) and penetration rates, which is the percentage of BTC’s TAM that it could capture in certain cases. He added that the digital currency’s supply schedule, which will approach ~20.5 million units by 2030, can also determine its BTC price targets. The analyst also highlighted that Bitcoin may fail to reach ARK’s price targets if any TAMs or penetration rates are unmet.

The Florida-based investment management firm found that digital gold contributes the most to its bear and base cases, while institutional investment contributes the most to its bull case. The company also highlighted that nation-state treasuries, corporate treasuries, and Bitcoin’s decentralized financial services contribute relatively little in each case.

Cathie Wood’s company also revealed that as of 2024, the global portfolio’s TAM, excluding gold’s 3.6% share, is ~$169 trillion. The firm applied an assumed 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), resulting in a value of ~$200 trillion by 2030. Puell estimated that the virtual asset would achieve a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion financial market in a best-case scenario (excluding gold).

The investment manager acknowledged that Bitcoin’s acceptance as “digital gold” was a major contributor to its elevated estimate. Puell also estimated that it could capture up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap by the end of 2030 in a bull scenario.

ARK sees Bitcoin as a potential contributor to capital accrual

Puell argued that BTC becoming a “safe haven” in emerging markets was the third-largest contributor to ARK’s $2.4 million bull case prediction at 13.5%. He pointed to the digital asset’s ability to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing countries.

“This Bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual.”

-David Puell, analyst at ARK Invest.

ARK Invest’s BTC price projections also included nation-state and corporate Bitcoin financial services, which was initiated by the success of MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases in 2020. The firm argued that if corporate strategies prove successful over the next six years, its bear and base cases’ conservative penetration assumption – 1% and 2.5%, respectively – could move toward its bull case assumption of 10%.

According to Puell, a $2.4 million BTC price tag would send the virtual asset’s market cap to $49.2 trillion if Bitcoin’s total supply will have reached 20.5 million by the end of 2030. 

The firm also argued that Bitcoin’s native financial services are an emerging contributor to capital accrual. ARK noted the Lightning Network’s dedication to scaling BTC’s transaction capacity and Wrapped BTC (WBTC) on the Ethereum network, which enables BTC to participate in decentralized finance. The investment manager believes that such on-chain financial services generate a baseline CAGR of 40%, which is a realistic expectation between now and 2030.

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