Bitcoin Exchange Deposits Hit 2016 Lows – HODL Sentiment Grows As Selling Pressure Fades

Bitcoin is now setting the stage for what could become a massive bull run. After surging more than 26% since April 9, BTC is trading firmly above the $90K level, regaining key technical ground and shifting market sentiment. Still, caution lingers. Global tensions, particularly around the escalating trade conflict between the US and China, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty continue to weigh on investor confidence.

Despite these risks, on-chain data paints a compelling picture. Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights on X showing a sharp decline in the number of Bitcoin addresses depositing to exchanges—a potential sign of reduced selling pressure. The 30-day moving average has dropped well below the 365-day average.

Most notably, the current level of exchange-depositing addresses is now comparable to that of December 2016, just before the historic 2017 bull run. If these trends persist, Bitcoin may soon break into price discovery, fueled by long-term holders and renewed institutional interest.

Bitcoin Decouples From Equities As HODL Sentiment Strengthens

Bitcoin is showing signs of macro-level strength as it begins to decouple from U.S. equities. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ face continued pressure due to mounting global tensions and investor unease, BTC has rallied—reaching a local high around $94,000. This divergence signals a potential shift in market behavior, where Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge or alternative to traditional assets during periods of uncertainty.

One key factor supporting this divergence is the rising conviction among long-term holders. According to Adler’s insights, the number of Bitcoin addresses depositing coins to exchanges has declined steadily since 2022. The 30-day moving average has now dropped to 52,000 addresses, significantly below the 365-day average of 71,000. Historically, this figure hovered closer to 92,000, making the current level one of the lowest in the past decade.

What’s most striking is that today’s numbers resemble those last seen in December 2016, right before Bitcoin’s explosive 2017 bull run. This decline in exchange activity implies that investors are holding, not selling—a trend that has reduced coin sales by a factor of four over the past three years. With selling pressure dropping and investor conviction rising, Bitcoin may be laying the groundwork for a powerful new rally.

Price Action Signals Strength With Key Levels In Sight

Bitcoin is currently trading at $92,300 after posting a strong weekly candle that briefly pushed into the $95,000 level. Bulls have taken control of short-term momentum, and the $95K mark now stands as a key resistance level. A decisive breakout above it could trigger a fast move toward the long-awaited $100K milestone, especially if buying pressure accelerates amid favorable macro signals.

However, analysts also suggest that a healthy retracement may occur before any significant breakout. A pullback could offer stronger technical support for the next leg up, especially if Bitcoin maintains its position above the 200-day moving average and key demand zones.

The $88,500 level is especially important in this context. Holding above this zone would signal short-term strength and continued bullish control, even in the event of a consolidation phase. Falling below it, on the other hand, could delay the uptrend and bring a retest of deeper support.

Overall, BTC’s current structure favors the bulls. But with global tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty still shaping market behavior, traders are watching closely to see if Bitcoin can build on its recent gains and turn $95K into support.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView