5 things to know in Bitcoin this week: PCE week and Trump tariffs

Bitcoin enters the last full business week of March 2025, with traders and analysts closely watching how economic data releases like the US Personal Consumption Expenditures and policy developments will affect the crypto market. The largest crypto by market cap has surged past $87,000, but market participants are divided on its next move. 

According to Coingecko, in the trading hours leading up to Monday’s US market opening, Bitcoin was changing hands at $87,500, an uptick of 3.4% in the last 24 hours and a weekly gain of 5.3%. 

BITCOIN – No need for any bias. Here's a reminder of my simple analysis and outlook. pic.twitter.com/APZY3f7eX7

— Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) March 24, 2025

Some analysts still see a downward price correction in the coming days to levels below $80,000, but others, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predict the coin will draw a path beyond its all-time high value and reach $110,000.

“My analysis is flashing a warning, correction is still underway, and a dip could be coming,” posted crypto trading expert IamCryptoWolf on X.

Bitcoin’s short-term holder losses

Bitcoin continues to trade within a consolidating wedge structure, with a harmonic pattern emerging on the four-hour charts. A potential third drive in the 3-Drive harmonic pattern is expected to complete near the 100% Fibonacci extension, which places Bitcoin’s price target in the $89,000–$91,000 range. 

Traders selling around this level are considered to be in a strong position, while the setup would be invalidated if Bitcoin rose above the $95,000–$96,000 zone.

The market’s volatile movements are pushing the hand of short-term Bitcoin holders to take more selling positions. Data from Glassnode shows unrealized losses mounting, with many short-term holder coins now underwater. 

#BTC's Short-Term Holders are under increasing pressure. Unrealized losses have surged, pushing many STH coins underwater, nearing the +2σ threshold. Still, losses remain within historical bull market bounds and are less severe than the May 2021 sell-off: https://t.co/dybs05jV9T pic.twitter.com/BOauq2MjFi

— glassnode (@glassnode) March 21, 2025

The group’s rolling 30-day realized loss has reached $7 billion, which is the largest sustained loss event of this cycle. 

Yet, the figure is significantly lower than losses exceeding $19 billion during previous capitulation events in 2021–2022.

BitMEX Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin clocking new highs

As reported by Cryptopolitan, Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin is more likely to reach the $110,000 mark before retesting $76,500. 

He attributed this expectation to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies, stating that the shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for treasuries would fuel further price increases.

“The price is more likely to hit $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it’s yachtzee time, and we ain’t looking back until $250k,” he remarked.

PCE data could sway market sentiment

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is set for release on March 28. Last month’s PCE reading came in below expectations, and analysts expect a similar outcome for February’s data. 

The Federal Reserve’s own projections show that both the headline and core inflation metrics could fall below 3% by the end of March.

Markets will be focusing on shifts in the Fed’s monetary policy, with traders looking ahead to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May. 

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows an 11.6% change in expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, and investors could be waiting for more signs on what is next before making any definitive selling or buying moves.

Trump tariffs could lead to inflation

The US government’s reciprocal tariff arrangement, signed off by President Trump, is set to go into effect on April 2. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged last week that tariffs are contributing to rising inflation expectations. 

“I think we were getting closer and closer to price stability,” Powell said last Wednesday. “I wouldn’t say we were at that. I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed.”

The introduction of new tariffs could dampen risk-on sentiment in financial markets, including Bitcoin and equities. Stocks are showing signs of meager recovery after a four-week losing streak, but the broader economic landscape is still highly volatile, and further fluctuations seem inevitable ahead of the quarterly close.

On-chain data signals market confidence

On-chain data analytics platform CryptoQuant reported that total ERC-20 stablecoin reserves on exchanges hit a record high of $31.8 billion on March 21, with Binance accounting for the largest share. 

The increase in stablecoin reserves is interpreted as a sign that investors are preparing to enter the market, insinuating there could be increased buying pressure in the near future.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) has been breaking out across both short and long timeframes, signaling increased buying strength. Market observers have noted bullish divergences forming on Bitcoin’s weekly RSI, indicating that the recent downtrend may be reversing. 

Last week, trader and analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that the daily RSI is retesting a critical downtrend line from November 2024, a move that could pave the way for higher price levels. 

#BTC

Back in June 2021, price was consolidating between the 21-week EMA (green) and 50-week EMA (blue) after a crash

Right now, Bitcoin is consolidating between the same EMAs after a crash

(By the way, $BTC indeed broke out from its triangle by late July 2021 to reach new All… pic.twitter.com/Ok4Grzvit8

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 17, 2025

In an X post today, the market observer reiterated his prediction, saying: “Slowly, people are starting to believe.”

The daily RSI is currently above its midpoint at 52, traders are watching for further signs of a bullish momentum building in the market.

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