Bitcoin’s bull market just might be over as US stocks seemingly revive

Bitcoin’s bull run might be over. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that on-chain indicators point to a bear or sideways market for the next 6 to 12 months. He posted on X today that whales are dumping Bitcoin at lower prices as liquidity dries up.

Ki said, “Every on-chain metric signals a bear market. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices. This alert applies PCA to on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes.”

But some X users have pointed out that his sell signal in 2020 was incorrect. One user, Dean, told Ki, “No amount of propaganda posting is going to help you with your short. Your ass will be liquidated soon.” Another pushed back, saying:

“If it were over, you wouldn’t be saying sideways price action. You would just leave it at bearish price action. The bull isn’t done. The printers will run as soon as the QT ends, and the QE begins. Bitcoin bull is looking for the right ground to run hard.”

Another trader challenged the bear market claim, saying, “Okay, let’s see when global liquidity kicks in, so we go higher from May into July. For now: chop and more down, yes. But it’s not the bear market, sir. No one is completing QT and cutting Fed rates in bear markets.”

US stocks are reviving now

While Bitcoin fights for direction, U.S. stocks have seemingly recovered after a rough week. The S&P 500 jumped by 0.64%, the Dow gained 0.85%, and the Nasdaq added 0.31% on Monday, according to data from CNBC. It was the second straight day of gains for all three. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose by 0.79%, with most stocks in the green, except QinetiQ, which plunged by nearly 21% after slashing revenue forecasts.

Economic projections are also changing. The OECD downgraded its global GDP growth estimate to 3.1% for the year, down from 3.3%. U.S. GDP growth for 2025 was also cut to 2.2% from 2.4%. The organization cited higher trade barriers, geopolitical risks, and uncertainty as key factors affecting growth.

Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales rose by 0.2% in February, missing the expected 0.6% gain, though it was an improvement over January’s 1.2% decline, which was revised down from the original 0.9% drop.

But stock futures slipped a bit early Tuesday after two straight winning sessions. Dow futures lost 76 points (0.18%), S&P 500 dropped by 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.31%. Traders are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve, which begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. The focus is on Wednesday’s interest rate decision, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak afterward.

Markets expect no rate cuts for now. Fed funds futures show a 99% chance that rates stay unchanged, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. But with economic uncertainty rising, traders are waiting to see if the Fed hints at a future pivot. That’s where Bitcoin bulls see their opportunity. If quantitative easing (QE) returns, Bitcoin could rally again.

“I’ve been calling for a bull market over the past two years, even when indicators were borderline. Sorry to change my view, but it now looks pretty clear that we’re entering a bear market,” said CryptoQuant’s Ki.

“Realized cap-based indicators show a lack of new liquidity. Massive volume around 100K failed to push the price higher, and ETF inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks.”

He concluded that he can’t keep sharing just his hopes when the data keeps signaling bearish. “I’m not going to short BTC and still hold my spot,” Ki claimed.

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