Is The Bitcoin Bear Market Here? This On-Chain Indicator Suggests So

The price performance of Bitcoin has been underwhelming for most parts of 2025, failing to capitalize on the red-hot momentum in the last 30 days of 2024. Despite the market leader’s obvious struggles, investors have still not lost hope on BTC making one final rally to a new all-time high.

However, the latest on-chain revelation points out that this might all be a pipe dream, with the Bitcoin bear market seemingly here. The question here is — is it time to move on or is there still one last upside run in this cycle?

Is It Time To Move On In This Cycle?

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, a crypto analyst with the pseudonym Maartunn put forward an interesting prognosis on the current on-chain setup of the Bitcoin price and cycle. This observation is based on the changes in the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric.

The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) is an on-chain metric that tracks BTC flows between spot and derivative exchanges using CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin exchange flow data. Changes in this indicator can help determine whether investor sentiment in the largest crypto market is bullish or bearish.

Typically, when significant amounts of BTC are being transferred to derivative exchanges, the indicator signals a bullish period. “This suggests that traders are moving coins to open long positions in the derivatives market,” Maartunn added.

On the flip side, the increased flow of Bitcoin out of derivative exchanges but rather into spot exchanges signals the start of a bearish period. The Quicktake analyst noted that this usually occurs when long positions are closed and large investors (whales) are looking to reduce their risk exposure.

As shown in the chart above, the IFP metric has turned bearish again, indicating a fall in market risk appetite and potentially signaling the start of a bearish phase. The last time this indicator turned red was in mid-2024, a period characterized by prolonged sideways movement for the flagship cryptocurrency. However, this trend mustn’t be sustained if the BTC price is to make one last rally in this cycle. The last sustained IFP bearish period coincided with the fall of Bitcoin price from above $60,000 to beneath $20,000 in 2022.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $97,500, reflecting no significant price change in the last 24 hours. Similarly, the premier cryptocurrency barely moved in the past week, recording a mere 1.2% gain in the last seven-day period.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView