Betting markets show increased optimism for Dogecoin ETF approval

Betting markets show a higher probability of approval of a spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF. According to Polymarket data, there is currently a 74% chance of approval till the end of 2025, which is 37% higher since Donald Trump’s inauguration.

However, the probability of approval by July 31 is slightly higher at 35%, even though there was a 13% rise. There has been a renewed demand for a Dogecoin ETF after the SEC recognized Grayscale’s applications for a spot in the Dogecoin and XRP ETFs. This is a change of trend from the past, when the regulator was very selective in approving cryptocurrency ETFs, with Bitcoin being the only exception.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes this acknowledgment points to the potential increased acceptance of cryptocurrency-listed products from regulators. As reported by Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett, the SEC appears friendlier than in December, when exchanges pulled Solana ETF applications due to unclear regulations.

Doge ETF filing has been acknowledged by SEC, is part of normal process but that’s good sign in the case as these alt coins (which in past have been told to withdrawal right after filing), bumps up slightly our (already pretty good) odds of approval. https://t.co/6RLrpRymlC

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 13, 2025

However, legal issues could still come into play to jeopardize the approval process. According to Bloomberg’s financial reporter, James Seyffart, this is because cases such as the one involving Ripple and the SEC may affect decisions on the crypto ETFs. Of course, Dogecoin is not faced with such problems, but there are many other questions related to regulation.

At the Digital Assets Forum in London, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, Matthew Hougan, noted that meme coin ETFs need a liquid market with minimal centralized influence. Contrary to other meme tokens, Dogecoin has an active community and usage, meaning there is a chance of getting an ETF approval.

However, Hougan rejected the possibility of the approval of DOGE facilitating the approval of meme coin ETFs such as SHIB, stating that it will be on a case-by-case basis.

Grayscale Dogecoin trust formation

Grayscale’s earlier launch of a Dogecoin trust was considered the main step toward an ETF. Although the trust owns cryptocurrencies, it usually has limited liquidity.

ETFs, on the other hand, provide increased access to real-time trading. Rex Osprey and Bitwise have also applied for Dogecoin ETFs, which also reveals growing demand for regulated meme coin products.

Market analysts are also watching the SEC’s approval as DOGE’s breakthrough to cross from the meme coin category to become a mainstream investment medium. Some traders suggest that Trump, influenced by Elon Musk, may attempt to establish the Strategic Dogecoin Reserve. However, the Polymarket bettors have put it at a 10% chance of occurrence.

At the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.26, registering a weekly loss of about 2.3%. Some analysts have forecasted these prices to rise further to as much as $4. The technical indicators also point to a breakout, and according to the traders, if the price manages to break through the $0.35 resistance level, then a fresh all-time high may be achieved.

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