ETF analysts say XRP ETFs have the lowest chance of approval

XRP spot ETFs just got hit with bad odds. Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas analyzed the current filings for crypto spot ETFs today and gave XRP a 65% chance of getting approved by the SEC, which is the lowest among the bunch.

Meanwhile, Litecoin is leading with a 90% shot at approval, followed by Dogecoin at 75% and Solana at 70%. The filing deadlines, approval timelines, and XRP’s legal status are reportedly making analysts doubtful.

The final SEC decision deadline for XRP spot ETFs is October 17, but James said acknowledgment filings for XRP and Dogecoin could drop as early as this week, but the former’s messy legal background and unclear classification as a commodity or security are dragging it down.

Trump’s SEC reshuffle hits XRP ETF hopes

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has started scaling back its crypto enforcement unit, which once had over 50 lawyers targeting crypto-related cases, with some being reassigned to other departments, and one top lawyer was removed from the enforcement division entirely.

Trump’s pro-crypto movement is of course the reason behind this. One of his first executive orders focused on cutting “regulatory overreach” in the crypto industry after years of friction between the SEC and crypto companies under Gary Gensler’s leadership in the Biden administration. Gary left the SEC on Trump’s inauguration day.

Mark Uyeda, the new acting chair of the SEC, has been quietly changing the commission’s priorities since he took over. Mark, a Republican known for being friendlier toward the crypto industry, appointed Hester Peirce to lead a task force focused on reviewing how the SEC regulates digital assets.

Hester is a known crypto supporter and has often criticized the agency’s handling of the sector. In a position paper published on the SEC’s website last week, Hester called the previous regulatory approach chaotic and ineffective. “The commission’s handling of crypto has been marked by legal imprecision and commercial impracticality,” she wrote.

But it’s unclear what all this means for pending crypto-related enforcement actions, including the high-profile case against Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in America, which was filed in 2023 and as usual accuses Coinbase of operating as an unregistered securities exchange.

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, recently said that his company would not work with law firms that hire former SEC officials involved in the crypto crackdown. And Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of the Gemini crypto exchange, said his company wouldn’t hire MIT graduates, even as interns, just because Gary Gensler returned to MIT as a professor after leaving the SEC.

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