Dogecoin Price Analysis: Why A Red Close Below $0.465 This Week Is A Good Thing For Price

Dogecoin’s price action is still drawing attention with its ongoing consolidation holding up above $0.4. At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading around $0.409, down 14% from its recent December high of $0.4757. While this dip might appear concerning to some, crypto analyst Master Kenobi believes it is a natural and necessary phase in Dogecoin’s journey toward another bullish breakout. 

According to his analysis shared on social media platform X, Dogecoin needs to close below $0.465 in the weekly timeframe. Although it sounds bearish at the get-go, it is actually based off a very bullish price outlook for the meme coin.

Dogecoin’s Consolidation Resembles Its 2020 Post-Halving Behavior

Kenobi’s outlook is not rooted in immediate bearishness but in a broader perspective comparing Dogecoin’s current price consolidation to its behavior during late 2020, right before the crazy rally in 2021. 

Cryptocurrencies are known to exhibit similar price performances in cycles. Interestingly, Dogecoin’s recent price performance is reminiscent of its price action in 2020 following the Bitcoin halving earlier that year. Analysis of the Dogecoin weekly candlestick price chart shows that the Dogecoin price rallied in late 2020, entered a consolidation phase, and subsequently exploded during the 2021 bull market. 

The parallels between those movements and Dogecoin’s current trajectory are very notable, with 2024’s Bitcoin halving earlier this year setting the stage for a similar cyclical pattern. As it stands, the Dogecoin price is now consolidating after a notable rally in October and November 2024, much like the 2020 movement. 

The Importance Of Closing Below $0.465 This Week

Although the current consolidation might be slowing down bullish sentiment, it might not be over yet. Crypto analyst Master Kenobi expects this consolidation to continue in order for the current Dogecoin price action to completely mirror that of the 2020/2021 movement, suggesting a repeat of 2021’s dramatic rally could occur by 2025.

To fully replicate its 2020-2021 cycle, Dogecoin needs to close this week in the red, with a price below $0.465. Particularly, the analyst noted that this is necessary for the Dogecoin price in order to continue healthy consolidation. At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at $0.409, meaning it is well on track to close the week below $0.465. 

If Dogecoin’s current price action continues to align with the patterns observed in 2020, it may be on track for another parabolic surge next year. In another technical analysis, Master Kenobi noted that the ongoing red week falls exactly 238 days after the last halving, perfectly aligning with the previous cycle.

Based on this pattern, he predicts that a red weekly close will be followed by two consecutive green weeks, paving the way for a significant price surge to begin in the third week, around December 30th. 

Featured image from AP News, chart from TradingView