USD edges firmer on the day – Scotiabank

The USD is tracking a little higher on the day so far, reversing some of yesterday’s losses, following news that President Trump will make some concessions on auto tariffs due to come into effect on May 3rd. Some levies on foreign auto parts will be lifted and imported vehicles will not be subject to separate steel and aluminum tariffs. DXY gains through 99.25 may allow the index to run a little higher but a more sustainable rebound needs to push above recent peaks and resistance at 99.85, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

USD gains marginally as US makes some auto tariff concessions

"The global risk mood has strengthened marginally; US Treasurys are a little softer while European government bonds are broadly higher. The CHF and JPY are underperforming, reflecting the general risk tone across asset markets. There is no sign of progress elsewhere on tariffs, however, and that will curb the markets’ reaction to developments in the auto sector. Comments on social media suggest US/Japan talks are stalled while GOP politicians are concerned that the growth/inflation impact of tariffs is starting to be felt on Main St. Overall, the USD tone remains soft."

"Price action yesterday was weak for the USD generally as US yields drifted. Yesterday’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index data showed the sector plunging to its weakest level since May 2020. Orders and shipments weakened notably in the April survey while Prices Paid and Prices Received rose significantly. Outlook data also weakened significantly and the contributing comments from participants made it clear that tariffs were a significant factor in the very downbeat assessment. Both the Philly and Dallas surveys weakened sharply in April, after rising strongly at the start of the year."

More data is needed but the stagflationary tone of the Dallas report will add to concerns about economic prospects, with no sign that trade friction will ease in a meaningful way any time soon. US data releases today include the Advance March Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, JOLTS and Consumer Confidence data. There are some meaningful data releases this evening; Japan releases Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers. China’s April PMIs are expected to weaken. Australian Q1 CPI is expected to show a hefty 0.8% rise in the quarter but slow a tenth to 2.3% in the year."