Bitcoin Sits Out Equity Fund Rush as Fed Hike Odds Reach 84%

Global equity funds drew a record $266 billion in four weeks, per the Kobeissi Letter. Bitcoin (BTC) sat out the rush as Fed hike odds for December hit 84.4%.

That rush now meets a Fed that markets expect to tighten. Higher rates raise Treasury returns against non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, leaving BTC holders facing a second headwind.

Who Is Capturing the Equity Fund Flows?

The Kobeissi Letter, says US equity funds have taken in $2.1 trillion since 2020. Of that, $1.5 trillion arrived since the start of 2024.

Investor demand for US stocks is unprecedented:Since 2020, US equity funds have attracted +$2.1 trillion in inflows.Since the start of 2024 alone, investors have allocated +$1.5 trillion to these funds.This is 4.5 times the inflows into Emerging Market Asia equity funds,… pic.twitter.com/IcmjH2FwCd

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 10, 2026

In contrast, emerging market Asia equity funds attracted $470 billion, per the same post. European equity funds lost $426 billion.

Even so, Asian stocks rebounding on Monday took their cue from Wall Street rather than setting the direction.

Global equity funds gained $89 billion last week, with US funds supplying $32 billion of it. As a result, four-week inflows reached a record $266 billion, the post said.

What Do 84% Fed Hike Odds Mean for Bitcoin?

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool converts futures on the Fed’s benchmark rate into probabilities. It shows an 84.4% chance of a quarter-point hike on December 9, with 0% assigned to a cut.

However, the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on October 28 in a 10 to 2 vote. Officials Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike at that meeting.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin lagged the Nasdaq rebound on Friday. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $1.28 billion in net outflows from November 2 to 6, the analysis said.

Consumer price index (CPI) data lands later Tuesday and will test those rate expectations. A $42 billion 10-year note auction follows this week’s Treasury sales, which opened with soft demand.

Still, positioning this concentrated may leave US equities exposed to a firmer Fed than priced in. It may also leave crypto exposed if capital keeps skipping it.

A softer CPI reading would trim hike odds and weaken that read.