Bitcoin on verge of 20% rally as Fed leaves rates unchanged

Source Fxstreet
  • Bitcoin could see a 20% rally after positive CPI data and FOMC meeting.
  • Over 20K BTC flowed to accumulating whale addresses in past 24 hours.
  • Donald Trump told miners he wants all "remaining BTC to be made in the USA."

Bitcoin (BTC) gained over 2% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. A recent analysis also revealed that BTC could be on the verge of a 20% rally after the Fed’s meeting.

BTC could see 20% gain following Trump’s comment and FOMC meeting

Bitcoin shot above 4% in the past 24 hours before experiencing a slight correction after the headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in at 3.3% YoY, below expectations of 3.4%. Bitcoin's price quickly reacted positively to the news of declining inflation.

Also read: Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Bitcoin could see high volatility due to US CPI

The market had earlier priced in higher inflation ahead of the FOMC meeting, causing Bitcoin to suffer more than a 5% decline on Tuesday. However, the softer-than-expected CPI data has changed investors' sentiment, with many expecting a price rise.

The Fed also announced it would leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. Four Fed officials expect no cuts this year, seven see one cut on the horizon, and eight project two cuts.

BTC's recent move seems to align with its historical price movement during the past four FOMC events. As noted by analyst @CryptoJelleNL, "the past FOMC meetings have all marked local bottoms and triggered >20% rallies for Bitcoin." As Bitcoin is currently rising, the prediction seems to be taking shape.

Read more: Bitcoin’s 2% crash wipes $4.21 billion in OI and handicaps altcoins, what’s next?

BTC chart after FOMC

BTC chart after FOMC

Whale activity in the past 24 hours also gives credence to the possibility of a price rise.

According to data from CryptoQuant, more than 20K BTC flowed to accumulating whale addresses during Tuesday's price decline.

BTC Quarterly returns

BTC Quarterly returns

However, investors must exercise caution as Bitcoin has historically struggled in Q3. BTC's Q3 average return is at 6.49% with a median return of -2.57%.

Also read: Bitcoin and entire crypto market bow into the weekend following strong NFP report

US Presidential candidate Donald Trump met with several executives of top Bitcoin mining firms in the US, according to Bitcoin Magazine, telling them he'll support BTC mining in Washington, DC and globally. The news was followed by Trump's post on his Truth Social platform, saying he wants all the "remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA." 

Trump's comment triggered a rise in the stocks of Bitcoin mining companies with TerraWulf rising by 19%, Hive Digital up by 8% and MicroStrategy seeing a 7% gain.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Brent Nears $110 Amid Saudi Pipeline Outage, How Much Further Can Oil Rise?Supply risks in the Middle East continue to heat up, with international oil prices fluctuating at high levels.During Tuesday's Asian trading session, Brent crude futures (UKOIL-F) rose to
Author  TradingKey
8 hours ago
Supply risks in the Middle East continue to heat up, with international oil prices fluctuating at high levels.During Tuesday's Asian trading session, Brent crude futures (UKOIL-F) rose to
placeholder
【Daily Brief】10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, S&P 500 slips to 7,602 and the dollar firms at 99.3 as the Fed's decision eve beginsThe 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
Author  Irene Q.
9 hours ago
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.
placeholder
Gold falls below $4,300 as higher US yields bolster Fed rate hike betsGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
Author  FXStreet
15 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. 
placeholder
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $63.50 amid Fed hike bets, higher oil pricesSilver price (XAG/USD) loses its gains from the previous day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Non-yielding Silver is currently facing significant headwinds driven by rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations for the upcoming September decision.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 10: 37
Silver price (XAG/USD) loses its gains from the previous day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Non-yielding Silver is currently facing significant headwinds driven by rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations for the upcoming September decision.
placeholder
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Author  Suzie
Yesterday 07: 49
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote