The Signal Before Bitcoin’s 25% Rally Just Flashed: Can It Hold?

Bitcoin price is sliding, but its most patient owners are doing the opposite of panicking. After 12 days of selling, long-term holders of Bitcoin (BTC) flipped back to buying on July 11 and 12, adding a net 5,912 BTC.

The move is small and only two days old. Moreover, BTC is still down 2% over the past 24 hours. Still, it is the first shift from selling to buying since late February, a turn that came just before a 25% rally.

Why Long-Term Holders Move Bitcoin Price

Glassnode tracks these owners with its long-term holder net position change. The metric counts coins held for roughly 155 days or more, so a positive reading means the group is buying faster than it sells.

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That matters because these wallets rarely react to noise. Their return to accumulation pulls supply off the market, which tightens conditions and gives Bitcoin price room to climb.

For the past 12 days that reading sat negative, meaning these owners were spending coins into a falling market. The flip to positive stops that bleed, at least for now.

Right now they are adding while price falls. Bitcoin trades near $62,717, down about 2% on the day, so this is buying into weakness rather than chasing strength.

The Signal That Called February’s Bottom

The last time selling flipped to buying was late February, when Bitcoin traded near $65,896. From there, long-term holder accumulation built steadily and BTC peaked around $82,186 on May 10, a gain of about 25%.

Then the pattern slowed and eventually reversed. These holders slowed buying from late May and turned to selling by late-June. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price bled back toward $60,000 by late June. In each case the holder turn led the price, not the reverse.

That is the sequence this flip is testing again. The buying has to come first, then price tends to follow.

The fresh flip echoes that February low, which is why traders watching on-chain bottom signals are paying attention to two quiet green days.

A Green ETF Week Backs the Turn

A second signal points the same way. In the week to July 10, US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $197 million, their first green week after eight straight weeks of outflows. Because ETF buying moves real spot Bitcoin, two separate groups are now adding at the same time.

That overlap is why the long-term holder flip carries more weight than its size suggests. The patient wallets may even be reading the ETF turn as a signal of their own.

What Has to Hold for Bitcoin Price

The caution is simple. A two-day streak is thin, and it needs to survive. If the buying fades, the signal fails and the sell-off resumes.

For now the oldest hands are leaning against the drop, near a current Bitcoin price of above $62,700. The February turn that this one echoes ran for weeks before price responded.

Whether it becomes another climb depends on whether the streak lasts through the coming week.