Polymarket Faces New Rival as Binance Wallet Tests Prediction Markets

Binance is beta-testing an in-app prediction market feature inside its Wallet app, powered by BNB Smart Chain protocol Predict.fun.

The crypto exchange confirmed it will aggregate prediction market access from third-party providers. Users will trade yes-or-no shares on real-world events, priced between $0.01 and $0.99 based on crowd consensus.

Binance Joins a Crowded Race

Predict.fun launched in December 2025 and has processed over $1.5 billion in cumulative trading volume across more than 120,000 users. The protocol acquired rival Probable in March 2026 to consolidate BNB Chain liquidity.

According to Trust Wallet, its core differentiator is yield-bearing collateral. Deposited funds earn DeFi yield through protocols like Venus while positions remain open. That addresses idle capital, a persistent pain point on platforms like Polymarket.

Binance will require users to set up a dedicated prediction account, separate from spot holdings. The rollout date and supported jurisdictions remain undisclosed.

Growing Sector, Growing Scrutiny

Prediction markets have surpassed $20 billion in monthly trading volume in 2026, up from $1.2 billion in early 2025.

Kalshi posted $12.35 billion in March alone, while Polymarket crossed $10 billion for the first time, according to DeFi Rate.

However, U.S. Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act in March, seeking to bar sports and casino-style contracts from CFTC-registered platforms.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket have since tightened controls on insider trading and market manipulation.

Binance’s entry, focused outside the U.S. through a self-custody wallet, could sidestep some of that regulatory friction while tapping into a fast-growing global user base.