Trump says tax refunds could soar over 20% thanks to one big beautiful bill

President Donald Trump is touting potentially major tax refunds ahead of the 2026 filing season, claiming that millions of Americans could see their refunds rise by over 20% due to his signature tax overhaul, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

In a post on his social platform, Trump said that taxpayers will receive “substantially greater than ever before” refunds when they file their 2025 tax returns this spring.

Trump pointed to provisions in the law that cut or eliminate taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits for seniors, and introduced new deductions.

Donald Trump explains tax changes that could increase refunds

Trump explained that his “One Big Beautiful Bill” includes tax relief measures that will help people retain more of their tax money throughout the year.

Americans will now have fewer costs counted when they calculate their annual taxes because the law removes federal taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits for seniors. It also allows people to deduct any interest on car loans. Because of these changes, people may owe less tax when they file their returns and receive a larger refund once the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) processes their filings. 

The refunds may even be more than 20% higher for certain taxpayers because of the combined effect of these tax relief measures.

The new bill retains tax cuts and changes how the government spends money

Under the new bill, people will continue to pay lower taxes in the future because it retains several tax cuts first introduced under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. These cuts were set to expire in 2025 but will remain in effect under the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

The tax cuts allow people to keep more of the money they earn from their jobs, businesses, or other work-related activities, reducing the total tax they owe at the end of the year. This is directly related to the amount of refund they can get when they file their tax returns.

This bill also allocates funds to national defense and border security while cutting spending in some government programs and Medicaid. This helps to redistribute public funds in different sectors of the economy.

This means the upcoming tax-filing season may be the largest in the US, especially given the bill’s direct impact on 2025 tax returns. People must file their returns by the 15th of April, 2026, and the changes made to the bill are likely to appear during the 2026 filing season.

After filing their returns, the refund process begins. The IRS says that if people file their returns online and use direct deposit to receive their refunds, they will receive them within 3 weeks of processing.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the total package could add as much as $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next ten years, depending on current forecasts. However, this legislation could also spur economic growth and lead to more refunds for taxpayers in the coming tax seasons.

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