$3 Billion Options Expiry Looms Over Bitcoin and Ethereum — Calm Before the Next Shock?

Nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today at 08:00 UTC on Deribit, placing derivatives markets under intense scrutiny.

Going into today’s options expiry, interest will be on whether the recent price stabilization marks a temporary pause or the beginning of a new directional move.

$3 Billion Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Tests Market Nerves After Liquidation Shock

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,372, with a max pain around $74,000 and total notional open interest exceeding $2.53 billion.

Ethereum, meanwhile, is trading near $1,950, with approximately $425 million in notional open interest and a max-pain level around $2,100.

These figures suggest that a large share of open positions would benefit if prices drifted higher toward max pain levels, but sentiment in the options market remains cautious.

Despite the recent rebound from last week’s sharp sell-off, options metrics suggest traders are still hedging against downside risk.

Analysts at Laevitas noted that Bitcoin’s risk reversals remain heavily skewed toward puts.

“BTC 1-week and 1-month 25-delta RRs have recovered from extreme lows but remain notably negative at approximately −13 and −11 vols, respectively, indicating persistent demand for downside protection,” the derivatives analyst stated.

Risk reversals are widely used to gauge sentiment in derivatives markets. Meanwhile, sustained negative readings typically signal that traders are paying a premium for protective puts, often reflecting fears of further declines.

Liquidations, Put Skew Shock, and a Fragile Shift Toward Calls as Expiry Nears

The current cautious tone follows a dramatic market event in which Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000, triggering widespread liquidations and extreme derivatives imbalances.

Analysts at Deribit said the move caused one of the most pronounced shifts toward put (sales) demand seen in years.

“BTC broke $70K last week, triggering cascading liquidations, and one of the most extreme put skew moves in years before bouncing back toward the 67K range,” Deribit analysts said.

Such events often leave a lasting psychological impact on markets, with traders remaining defensive even after prices stabilize.

More recently, however, derivatives positioning has begun to shift, with some traders rotating back into call (purchase) options as volatility declines from panic levels. Deribit analysts observed that the market is now at a critical inflection point.

Options expiries of this size can sometimes exert short-term gravitational effects on price, especially when large clusters of open interest are concentrated near specific strike levels.

While short-term positioning has improved, some indicators suggest institutional traders remain skeptical about the medium-term outlook.

Analysts at Greeks.live reported that put options continue to dominate activity in Bitcoin derivatives markets.

“Put options continue to dominate the market, with over $1 billion in BTC put options traded today, accounting for 37% of the total volume. The majority of these are out-of-the-money options priced between $60,000 and $65,000,” the analysts said.

This indicates that institutions have a negative outlook for the medium- to long-term market trajectory. According to the analysts, there is a strong expectation of a bearish trend within the next one to two months

The settlement of today’s options expiry could relieve pressure and stabilize markets. However, it could also be the catalyst for another bout of volatility heading into the weekend.