Bitcoin (BTC) price closed down for four weeks in a row, based on the weekly chart, and could be on track for another red candle this week. The last time it did this was in the middle of the bear market when it fell by 42% within a span of nine weeks. The drop is somewhat surprising considering the growing validation that BTC continues to enjoy by way of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Also Read: Week Ahead: Bitcoin could surprise investors this week
Bitcoin price downward momentum continues to grow, unmoved by recent developments in the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) market. Last week, FXStreet reported that Hong Kong had advanced with its spot BTC and ETH ETFs approval, set to begin trading on April 30.
Good afternoon, April 29, 2024
— Chenge (@LingChennC) April 29, 2024
Industry News:
Hong Kong's Virtual Asset Spot ETF saw its debut today, set to officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow.
Australia plans to approve a Bitcoin Spot ETF by year-end.
Bitcoin exchange balances hit a six-year low.…
Reports have also indicated that Chinese investors with Hong Kong residence permits will be allowed to buy shares in these Bitcoin ETFs. Ahead of the listing, however, a Bloomberg report has indicated expectations that the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) will approve spot BTC ETFs before the close of the year. The report, which cited persons familiar with the matter, indicated that two Bitcoin ETF applications have already been submitted, with a third application in progress.
Australia is set for a wave of Bitcoin ETF launches this year, following in the footsteps of the US and Hong Kong, as issuers like VanEck and BetaShares line up for listings https://t.co/tVRBCUYonl
— Bloomberg Crypto (@crypto) April 28, 2024
The two applications are from VanEck Australia and BetaShares, a local ETF-focused fund manager. Speaking to Cointelegraph, CEO of fund manager Monochrome Jeff Yew said spot BTC ETFs in Australia could bring inflows ranging between $3 billion and $4 billion within the first three years of trading.
Coming back to the US, there is speculation that Morgan Stanley has echoed that there could be “firm wide” BTC ETF approvals in May.
UPDATE: sources this morning @MorganStanley reconfirming that #Bitcoin ETF 'firm wide' approvals coming in May.
— Andrew (@AP_Abacus) April 29, 2024
Source: "yes, it's gonna be May: likely second half of May barring any unforeseen internal obstacles."$MS employs >17,000 advisors and manages >$2T in assets.
While these ETF-related market movers keep Bitcoiners at the edge of their seats, the market is also anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This could be causing the markets to correct ahead of the meeting, and reverse back up afterwards amid hope of possible incoming rate cuts.
For the layperson, the demand for BTC could increase with more interest rate cuts. Rate cuts could increase the shine on crypto investments as investors move away from diminishing returns on traditional investments. In this regard, American multinational investment bank Citigroup says the Fed could deliver 100 BPS of total interest rate cuts in 2024.
FXStreet will bring updates following the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday and its implication on Bitcoin price.
The new weekly close has confirmed the $65,600 level as new resistance for Bitcoin price, trapping BTC between two key levels, $65,600 to the upside and the pool of liquidity below residing between $60,600 and $59,005. The odds lean in favor of further downside on the one-day timeframe.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), this momentum indicator is sliding south and showing more downside potential for the pioneer cryptocurrency as buying pressure continues to dwindle. Its subjugation below the mean level of 50 shows growing bearish sentiment amid calls for further drops.
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator corroborates this outlook, with its red histograms in negative territory accentuating the bearish outlook. Based on the volume profile, bulls are only waiting to interact with BTC once Bitcoin price drops to $50,000. This is seen with the yellow spikes on the volume nodes just above the $50,000 psychological level.
Increased selling pressure could see Bitcoin price dip into the liquidity pool between $60,600 and $59,005. If this level fails to hold, Bitcoin price could approach $50,000 before a possible recovery.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
On the other hand, resurgence by the bulls could see the Bitcoin price recover. A flip of the weekly close of $65,600 into support would be a step in the right direction, but the bearish thesis will only be invalidated once BTC decisively closes above $72,000. This would mean the bulls have overcome bearish activity from sellers waiting to interact with BTC near the $70,000 psychological area.
In a highly bullish case, the Bitcoin price could reclaim its $73,777 peak, and possibly record a new all-time high above it. This would constitute a climb of approximately 20% above current levels.
Notice the DXY Compare indicator as it falls in tandem with Bitcoin price. This has often led to an opposite move from BTC. If history rhymes, Bitcoin price could be primed for a pushback.
Also Read: Expect more from altcoins with Bitcoin price stuck in range trade
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.