Global economy under pressure as G7 nations debt exceed annual GDP

The problem of overwhelming debt has shifted. While poor countries struggled with this burden for years, the threat now comes from some of the world’s wealthiest nations.

Countries including the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan are carrying unprecedented or near-unprecedented levels of debt. This creates risks that could slow economic progress and destabilize financial markets worldwide.

Rising costs leave governments with fewer options

The constant need for additional financing has raised the cost of borrowing itself, consuming larger portions of tax revenue. These elevated rates spill over into business financing, personal loans, vehicle purchases, home mortgages and credit card interest. They can also fuel rising prices.

The most troubling aspect is that accumulating debt during periods of economic strength and low unemployment, as seen in the United States, leaves governments with fewer options when conditions deteriorate.

“You want to be able to spend big and spend fast when you need to,” explained Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard.

During last week’s World Economic Forum gathering in Davos, President Trump dominated headlines, yet finance ministers privately worried about funding growing requirements.

Government borrowing during prosperous times with favorable rates can fuel expansion, while emergency borrowing during crises can maintain spending levels. The surge in debt began during the 2008 financial collapse and economic downturn, when governments provided relief to troubled households as tax collections dropped.

Emergency measures during the Covid-19 outbreak, as economies halted and medical expenses soared, pushed obligations higher as rates climbed faster than economic expansion.

Yet debt amounts never decreased. Currently, six nations within the wealthy Group of 7 have national obligations matching or surpassing their yearly economic production, based on International Monetary Fund data.

Aging populations and infrastructure demands strain budgets

Growing numbers of countries face pressure from population trends and sluggish expansion. Across Europe, Britain and Japan, older populations have increased government healthcare and retirement expenses while reducing the workforce that generates essential tax income.

A year-long examination commissioned by the European Union’s leadership determined the 27-nation group must allocate an extra $900 billion toward priorities including artificial intelligence, interconnected energy systems, supercomputing capabilities and advanced workforce development to maintain competitiveness.

Britain requires at least 300 billion pounds ($410 billion) for infrastructure improvements across the coming decade, according to Future Governance Forum, a London research organization. Additional billions are necessary to strengthen its struggling National Health Service.

Attempts to reduce public expenditures in Italy, where obligations equal 138% of economic output, through healthcare, education and service reductions, or in France through retirement age increases, have triggered fierce public opposition.

France, experiencing months of political gridlock over budget matters, received a sovereign debt downgrade last autumn, prompting concerns about the nation’s financial reliability.

Simultaneously, global conditions have grown more hazardous. Friction between China and the United States has intensified. Europe confronts an increasingly hostile Russia and an antagonistic American president.

Japan’s election announcement rattles global markets

Tokyo’s obligations are already overwhelming. They exceed the nation’s yearly economic production by more than double.

The possibility of deeper financial trouble expanded last week when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi unexpectedly announced a snap election. Both Ms. Takaichi’s Liberal Democrats and rival parties are pledging spending increases and tax reductions.

Ms. Takaichi, specifically, has suggested halting the consumption tax on food and nonalcoholic drinks, which the Finance Ministry calculates would cost over $30 billion yearly.

“Movement remains cautious due to financial instability concerns”, said Harvard’s Mr. Rogoff. Japan has “stuffed debt into every orifice of the financial sector, pension funds, insurance companies, banks. And there are inflation pressures.”

Low rates combined with elevated inflation particularly damage working and middle-income households, whose savings lose value.

Ms. Takaichi’s declaration unsettled investors.

Last week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield climbed to its highest point since August.

Ken Griffin, who leads hedge fund giant Citadel, described the selloff as an “explicit warning” to other heavily indebted countries like the United States, observing that even the globe’s most powerful economy faces risks.

Confidence in U.S. creditworthiness wavered briefly last April, when Trump’s rapid tariff reversals caused Treasury yields to spike suddenly.

U.S. national obligations now stand at $38 trillion, approximately 125% of the American economy’s size.

Analysts anticipate midterm elections will encourage the White House toward greater spending next year.

This month, Trump pledged further military spending increases to $1.5 trillion over the upcoming fiscal year, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projected would add $5.8 trillion to national debt, including interest, across 10 years.

Net interest charges have tripled during the past five years, reaching approximately $1 trillion. They currently consume 15% of U.S. spending, the second largest expense behind Social Security.

Mr. Gale, who recently co-authored research on U.S. debt, cautioned that continued debt growth prospects threaten the country’s position as an economic leader and weaken investor confidence in Treasury bonds and the dollar.

It also burdens future generations. As Mr. Gale stated, “the more you consume now, the less you can consume later.“

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