3 Reasons The 29% Monad Price Rally Could Face The Boxing Day Test

Monad (MON), the relatively new layer-1 project, is up more than 29% in the last seven days. The Monad price even broke out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern on December 24. For a moment, it looked like the breakout was ready to stretch higher.

But the reaction since then shows pressure building. Three signals, big money, spot flows, and derivative positioning now suggest this rally could struggle as the market moves into Boxing Day (the day after Christmas).

Breakout Holds, But Capital Flow Weakens

The breakout is real. Monad cleared the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and broke above the descending neckline, which typically indicates seller-dominated resistance. The price did react, but long wicks on recent candles show sellers pushing back. Long wicks are usually a sign that supply is waiting overhead.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures whether bigger capital is supporting a move, tried to break above the zero line when the breakout happened. It failed. CMF has now trended lower, while the price has risen. Breakout attempts with CMF stuck under zero are often built on weak funding or small buyers. The last time CMF failed above zero and dipped was on December 11, and the price dropped soon after.

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Spot behavior confirms this imbalance.

Since December 22, net flows have flipped from more than $1 million in outflows to roughly $2 million in exchange inflows, suggesting profit taking.

A breakout without capital commitment from CMF and with rising spot inflows usually hints at a stall.

Derivatives Positioning Shows A Reversal In Mood

The derivatives side explains the hesitation. Over the last seven days, smart money on perpetuals added aggressively. Long exposure reached $89.36 million and increased more than 99%, which lined up with the breakout on December 24 and the climb into December 25. That long bias helped MON clear the neckline.

The last 24 hours tell a different story. Smart money long exposure has dropped more than 12.23%. The top 100 perpetual addresses have cut positions by more than 216%. Public figures, typically late trend followers, reduce their exposure by nearly 28.78%.

The fading long bias across perpetuals often occurs when a strong breakout is getting tired. The rally might not reverse immediately, but the market is no longer aligned behind the move. That is why the next 24 hours, into Boxing Day, become a pressure point.

Monad Price Levels Decide If Boxing Day Brings Follow-Through Or Failure

The Monad price sits at a fragile point. Above $0.024, MON can try another breakout leg. A 12-hour close above $0.026 would confirm a roughly 14% extension and open the path to $0.030. Clearing that zone would finally break the curse of the downward-sloping neckline, where sellers might keep pressurizing every price surge attempt.

If the rally loses strength, $0.021 acts as the first line of defense. A drop under $0.018 would weaken the breakout structure. A close below $0.016 would break the pattern, invalidate the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and open the path back to the mid-December lows.

For now, the MON price is stuck between real breakout mechanics and short-term pressure. CMF has not confirmed. Spot inflows look like profit-taking. Derivatives are cooling off. Boxing Day, or December 26, will likely decide whether Monad respects the breakout or hands most of the gains back.