EU trade deal with U.S. hasn’t translated into higher energy import spending

The EU told President Donald Trump it would spend $750 billion on American energy over the next three years. That commitment was made loud and clear when both sides reached a deal back in August.

But since then, nothing about the numbers says that promise is being kept. From September through December, the EU actually spent 7% less on oil and gas from the U.S. compared to the same four-month stretch last year. This is despite the fact that the EU has taken in more U.S. liquefied natural gas during that time.

This decline in spending is about prices. U.S. oil and gas prices fell, which pushed down the total value of imports. $29.6 billion. That’s how much the EU spent between September and December, based on numbers shared by Kpler, a consultancy that tracks energy shipments. And Kpler’s senior director Gillian Boccara had this explanation:

“Commodity purchases were negotiated bilaterally and driven by economics, including freight costs and margins, rather than political pledges.”

When asked if the $750 billion target was realistic, Gillian said, “We just can’t see the math working out.”

Current levels of spending and infrastructure don’t match the deal

For all of 2025 so far, EU energy imports from the U.S. are sitting at $73.7 billion. That’s not even a third of what’s needed each year to hit the $750 billion goal by 2028.

Even if the EU swapped out every molecule of Russian gas with American LNG, it still wouldn’t get close. Argus Media, a firm that tracks global prices, said that would only boost annual imports to about $29 billion, or just 23% of what’s required.

And to somehow reach the full target, gas prices would need to shoot up to $37.3 per mmbtu by 2028. That’s four times higher than where futures are trading now, which is around $8.2 per mmbtu, and nearly quadruple the current spot price of about $10.

The last time prices hit $37.3 was in December 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis and forced the EU to scramble for alternatives.

Even then, Gillian doesn’t think that level of value is within reach. “Even if the EU were to replace all Russian gas with U.S. supplies, it would still not be enough to triple the import value,” she said.

The way she sees it, the deal looks like a way to score tariff relief, not an actual energy commitment.

Long-term purchases and bottlenecks raise more questions

Markets aren’t buying the dream either. With the U.S., Qatar, and Canada all expected to raise output, supply is likely to grow faster than demand. That means prices could keep dropping. There’s also growing talk about a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which has helped cool the market even more.

Martin Senior, an analyst at Argus, pointed to physical limitations as another barrier. He said the EU would need to boost its import capacity by more than 50% to handle more American energy.

On the U.S. side, export infrastructure would have to more than double to keep up with that level of commitment. That means new regasification terminals, more tanks, and additional pipelines, none of which can be built overnight.

So what’s the real story here? A former member of the EU Parliament who worked on energy issues said the entire agreement looked like a delay tactic. “The hour of reckoning must be postponed. And maybe the war [will be] over when the hour of reckoning comes,” said the ex-MEP.

According to them, this might be less about gas and more about politics. Just stalling until Trump finishes his second term in January 2029.

The European Commission claimed that it had spent €200 billion ($236 billion) on U.S. energy goods in the first 11 months of 2025.

They said purchases of LNG and oil were growing, especially from the U.S., and expected total LNG imports from the U.S. to hit 70 billion cubic meters in 2025, up from 45bcm the year before.

A Commission spokesperson said, “This trend will continue in the future, with at least nine new long-term contracts for U.S. LNG signed by EU buyers this year.”

But no one’s quite sure how much of those future orders were already baked into the €200 billion figure. And the number also includes a separate deal with Poland, €42 billion to buy three nuclear reactors from Westinghouse for a new power plant.

Nuclear fuel like uranium is technically part of the energy trade agreement, but it only makes up less than 1% of all EU imports from the U.S.

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