Bitcoin developers urge caution as quantum debate intensifies

The transition to post-quantum security for Bitcoin could be a challenging and protracted process, as leading developers have cautioned that the migration may take 5 to 10 years.

Jameson Lopp, a developer and CTO of crypto custody provider Casa, said there is no immediate worrying threat to Bitcoin from quantum computers. However, the protocol for transitioning into a future post-quantum world would require broad planning and coordination, he also said.

Unlike centralized software systems, Bitcoin’s consensus-driven governance model requires upgrades to garner broad support across node operators, miners, exchanges, wallet providers, and users. This process has historically taken years.

As debate about quantum computing in the Bitcoin community has begun to gather steam, Lopp has now taken to X to share his thoughts on the matter. Lopp points out that today’s quantum computers are nowhere near having enough power to break Bitcoin’s cryptographic underpinnings.

The broader issue is how the BTC community can safely iterate on Bitcoin without compromising its core values. At the same time, and perhaps more significantly in practical terms, any hasty rush job would have introduced new risks and eroded institutional confidence in the system.

Bitcoin developers urge caution as quantum debate intensifies

Lopp’s opinion is also echoed by comments made in the past by Blockstream CEO Adam Back, who believes that quantum computers pose no risk to Bitcoin in the near future.

The two developers also agree that the technology is not at a stage where it could conceivably work as an attack vector for Bitcoin’s private keys or signature schemes, and they both agree it’s on the up-and-up. The real issue, they contend, is not seeing the potential danger further out into the future, but getting through the upgrade itself.

Being built around a distributed consensus architecture, Bitcoin cannot make any major protocol change without the consent of all programmers, node operators, miners, and users. This makes it significantly harder to update Bitcoin than centralized software systems, which can upgrade the system in real-time.

Lopp further remarked on the challenge of fund migration in a post-quantum world. If BTC were to transition to quantum-secure addresses, it would result in millions of people instantly transferring their money, including many long-dormant coins from one address to another. It can take years, even after a technical fix is implemented, to safely and effectively orchestrate such a migration.

Besides, Bitcoin maximalist Pierre Rochard has confirmed that a large-scale quantum attack would be “completely useless”, and users would not have to worry about losing their coins.

And Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin-centric development studio JAN3, has also expressed his sentiment that everything is fine. Quantum computers today already have difficulty solving some of the simplest factoring problems, and being able to break through Bitcoin security is a bit more conceptual rather than something we’re going to see play out in any meaningful sense within our lifetime, he said.

Investors warn of market impact without quantum readiness

Some developers have real assurances, but other investors and venture capitalists wonder how the quantum question will be reflected in the market value of BTC. They argue that it is only risk perception that determines the confidence of investors, as well as their anticipation of long-term price developments – notably in the wake of institutional adoption.

Charles Edwards, founder of digital asset investment firm Capriole, warned that Bitcoin’s price may come under severe pressure if it is not evident that the network is fully quantum-proof by 2028.

Markets price long-term risks well before they are realized, which, if uncertainty remains, can cause volatility, McCluskey said. Edwards called on all BTC node operators to start enforcing BIP 360 now, as it can enable a quantum-secure signature scheme.

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