Fundstrat warns clients of possible crypto drawdown in early 2026

Fundstrat has warned its clients to brace for a possible drawdown in Bitcoin, ETH, and SOL in early 2026. The revelation came through a leaked internal report showing a contradicting view against Tom Lee’s recent remarks. 

Screenshots of the document appeared widely on X today, detailing the expectations of a deep pullback in the first half of 2026. The report estimates that Bitcoin will drop to a range between $60,000 and $65,000, and ETH will drop to a range between $1,800 and $2,000. For Solana, the report estimated a pullback to the range of $50 and $75. 

Bitcoin to fall between $60K and $65K alongside ETH’s $1.8K and $2K

According to Lee, pro-business regulations, especially those linked to AI, the upcoming mid-term elections, and the new Fed leadership, may prove to be suitable for the market. He added that the market will come back in force, but it will take at least the first half of 2026 to get back. Lee predicted that the first half may go down by 10 to 15% before recovery.

Fundstrat has not publicly confirmed the document, which is labelled for exclusive client use under the ‘Crypto – Strategy’ category. The document is attributed to Sean Farrell, the firm’s head of digital asset strategy. However, multiple crypto-focused accounts claim the document was distributed through internal clients.

Despite the short-term bearish predictions, Fundsrat’s long-term sentiment remains bullish, with the short-term pullback expected to create buying opportunities ahead of recovery in the second half of 2026. 

Lee spoke at Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai early this month, noting that ETH is ‘grossly undervalued’. He positioned the network at the center of a structural shift driven by real-world asset (RWAs) tokenization across stocks, bonds, real estate, and financial products on smart contract platforms. 

Lee says Ethereum is having its ‘1971 moment’

Tom Lee described Ethereum’s 2025 performance as its ‘1971 moment’. According to Lee, after five years of range-bound trading, the Ethereum token began to break out, which prompted increased ETH exposure at Fundstrat.

Lee forecasted that ETH may reach $12,000 based on an eight-year average ratio to Bitcoin, or roughly $60,000 to $62,000 upon reaching a 0.25 ratio or 2021 relative levels. Lee has also projected before that Bitcoin will hit $250,000 within months, forming new all-time highs as early as January 2026, alongside ETH targeting $5,500 to $15,000 by the end of 2025. 

Elsewhere, ARK Invest recently organized a podcast with Tom Lee, discussing BitMine’s rise to the top as a corporate Ethereum holder. Lee noted that this year is Ethereum’s ‘ChatGPT moment’ via tokenization and stablecoins, and he views ETH surpassing Bitcoin in market cap, becoming the base layer of Wall Street finance.

BitMine Immersion Technologies, which is linked to Lee, has accumulated roughly 3.9 million ETH valued at $11.81 billion, marking it as the first public treasury firm. BitMine’s holdings represent approximately 3.28% of the total ETH supply. 

At the time of publication, ETH was trading at $2,985, representing a 4.3% drop over the past week. The price marks a roughly 42% decline from its ATH recorded in August.  BTC was down 2.3% over the past week, trading at $88,232 at the time of publication.

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