XRP Price Sits 3% From Breakdown, but A Rare On-Chain Hope Appears

XRP has been one of the weakest large-cap movers this week. The XRP price dropped about 1.1% since yesterday and is now down almost 11% over the last 7 days. The move comes as the chart shows a heavy breakdown structure, but one rare on-chain signal has flipped and now stands between XRP and a deeper fall.

This mix keeps both sides open as XRP trades near a major decision point.

Breakdown Structure Tightens as Critical Support Zone Surfaces

XRP continues to move under a descending trend line. This trend line has formed the upper boundary of a broad triangle-type structure, with the $1.94 level acting as the base. This is a typical bearish pattern.

If the price falls under $1.94, it would break through the base of this descending structure and confirm another downside extension. XRP is only about 3% away from testing that zone.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The cost-basis heatmap reinforces this level.

A cost-basis heatmap shows where most tokens were originally bought. These areas act like strong support or resistance.

Right now, the strongest cluster sits between $1.96 and $1.97. Around 1.79 billion XRP sit in this range. If XRP falls below $1.96, especially $1.94, the entire cluster gets forced underwater, and the price can fall much faster toward the next major zone, highlighted later in the piece.

This is the cleanest technical and on-chain overlap on the chart.

Holder Net Position Change Flips Green — A Rare Shift After 29 Days

One sudden and rare on-chain shift has now appeared.

The Holder Net Position Change tracks how long-term wallets add or remove tokens. Red bars mean they are sending tokens out (distribution). Green bars mean they are accumulating. For 29 straight days, this metric was red. XRP long-term holders were exiting every day.

On December 1, it flipped green for the first time in a month.

The metric moved from –83.9 million XRP on November 30 to +42.05 million XRP, which is roughly a 150% swing from net outflows to net inflows.

This is the first clear sign that long-term investors are testing the support zone and could be preparing for a rebound attempt. That’s the rare hope we mentioned earlier.

XRP Price Levels: What Happens Next Depends on $1.94

As mentioned, the XRP continues to move under a descending trend line. This trend line forms the upper boundary of the triangle, with Fibonacci levels acting as the base. The price has already broken through several levels. The first critical breakdown came under the 0.5 Fibonacci line near $2.19, followed by another under $2.10. The next key floors sit between $1.99 and $1.94.

A close below $1.94 confirms the breakdown. That would open the path toward $1.81, which is the next major support zone.

If the long-term holders continue adding and the $1.94–$1.97 cluster holds, XRP could attempt a rebound.

The first recovery barrier sits at $1.99. The XRP price needs to hold above it to avoid a deeper correction.

A stronger rebound forms only if XRP can break above $2.28, which is where it would flip above the descending trend line and neutralize the constant sell pressure.

The XRP price is now pinned between its strongest near-term support and the trendline that provides resistance. Whether the new long-term accumulation is enough to stop a fresh breakdown will decide the next move.