Bitcoin Price Analysis: Pre-Rally Signals Point To $180,000 Target In Q1 2026

As investors navigate a landscape marked by heightened uncertainty, the Bitcoin price is currently trading nearly 20% below its all-time highs. However, a group of analysts has drawn parallels between the present performance and the significant rally observed in 2023.

Positive Signals For The Bitcoin Price

In a recent update shared on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), analysts from The Bull Theory highlighted that the Bitcoin price has once again closed a weekly candle above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a critical indicator that has historically supported every major uptrend over the past two and a half years. 

This EMA level has been tested multiple times, notably in August 2024 and April 2025, where Bitcoin dipped below it briefly before reclaiming the position and entering a new upward trajectory.

Currently, a similar pattern appears to be forming. The analysts pointed out that Bitcoin has maintained its position within a multi-year support zone on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). 

Although momentum has cooled, there are no signs of an impending breakdown, the analysts asserted. In previous instances where the RSI reached this level during the current cycle, it signaled the conclusion of a corrective phase and the onset of expansion.

Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is resetting near its historical reversal zone, a zone that has previously triggered rallies in early 2023, late 2024, and again in the second quarter of 2025. This suggests a potential exhaustion of selling pressure rather than the beginning of a new downtrend.

Strong Potential For Future Gains

From a structural standpoint, the recent corrective move appears complete. Bitcoin has retraced nearly 20% from its peak of $126,000, aligning perfectly with the average correction size observed in each impulsive wave since the cycle began. 

When considering the signals from the reclaimed EMA, the RSI support, and the MACD reversal zone, the current structure mirrors setups that preceded major breakouts since 2023. This analysis implies that the market is not on the verge of a breakdown but rather undergoing a necessary reset.

While it is possible that Bitcoin may experience a few weeks of sideways consolidation as it stabilizes above the EMA, similar to the behavior seen after the April 2025 correction, this range could set the stage for the next expansion phase.

Looking ahead, the analysts suggest that this could signify the fifth wave of the current market structure, with potential price targets ranging between $160,000 and $180,000 by the first quarter of 2026. Technically, all indicators currently favor continuation rather than collapse.

When writing, the Bitcoin price was trading at $106,520, recording a nearly 2% recovery in the 24-hour time frame, according to CoinGecko data. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com