U.S.–China Tariff Easing Sparks Crypto Rebound — Can Bitcoin Reclaim Its Peak?

TradingKey – The U.S. signals a softer stance on tariffs, helping Bitcoin reverse losses. Rate cut expectations may push BTC back toward $126,000.

On Monday, October 13, panic in the crypto market began to ease, with nearly all major tokens staging a recovery. According to CoinMarketCap, the Fear Index rebounded from 31 to 40, and total crypto market capitalization surged more than 7%, climbing from a low of $3.65 trillion to a peak of $3.91 trillion, currently holding at $3.89 trillion.

Crypto Market Cap Movement – Source: CoinMarketCap.

In the past 24 hours:

• Bitcoin (BTC) rose nearly 3%, reclaiming the $110,000 level
• Ethereum (ETH) jumped over 4%, back above $4,000
• Binance Coin (BNB) surged more than 13%, briefly breaking $1,300, nearly erasing its prior losses

Top 10 Crypto Assets by Market Cap – Source: CoinMarketCap.

This oversold rebound triggered widespread short liquidations. Over 180,000 traders were liquidated in the past day, totaling $600 million, with $400 million coming from short positions — two-thirds of the total. While significant, this pales in comparison to the “10/11 Black Swan Event”, when over 2 million traders were liquidated for $20 billion, marking the largest wipeout in crypto history — surpassing the infamous 3/12 and 5/19 crashes.

The October 11 crash was driven by the U.S. announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, along with export controls on rare earths and key software, triggering a meltdown in both equities and crypto. In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated:

“China’s position on the tariff war remains consistent — we do not want to fight, but we are not afraid to fight.”

On October 12, the U.S. unexpectedly signaled a shift. Vice President J.D. Vance stated in an interview:

“President Trump is open to rational negotiations with China.”

Following this statement, crypto markets staged a broad recovery, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $110,000 level and currently trading at $114,757.

Bitcoin Price Chart – Source: TradingView.

While Bitcoin may retest the $110,000 support, a decisive break below is unlikely unless triggered by new macro shocks. Overall, sentiment favors a rebound, supported by:

• The market having already absorbed a rare panic-driven selloff
• Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could inject fresh liquidity into risk assets

According to CME’s “FedWatch” tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October stands at 97.8%, further boosting bullish momentum.