OPEC+ increases production and dumps 1.65 million barrels back early

Saudi Arabia is slashing crude prices again, this time across all grades headed to Asia, and it’s happening quite fast. Saudi Aramco, the kingdom’s state oil company, just dropped the price of its flagship Arab Light crude by $1 per barrel for October shipments, according to a latest pricing sheet.

That’s a lot steeper than expected, as Bloomberg’s survey shows that refiners and traders were only betting on a 50-cent cut, not a full dollar. The new price premium sits at $2.20 a barrel above the regional benchmark, which is low, especially compared to what buyers were bracing for.

This move comes right after OPEC+, the cartel of oil producers led by Saudi and Russia, announced it’s not backing down on its production hike plan, it’s doing the opposite.

Over the weekend, they locked in a decision to keep ramping up supply through to September 2026, starting with an extra 137,000 barrels per day from October. The goal is to grab back some of the market share they lost to other global producers.

And it all comes as global crude prices continue sliding, with the London Brent having dropped by around 12% so far this year, sitting near $66 a barrel, per data from CNBC.

OPEC+ increases production and dumps 1.65 million barrels back early

Moving on, despite talk of oversupply, Saudi and its allies are pushing ahead anyway. What was supposed to be 1.65 million barrels per day held off the market until the end of 2026 is now coming back much sooner, and it is a huge change from the typical slow, calculated rollouts the OPEC+ has historically stuck to.

UBS analysts see oil prices slipping some more, to $62 by year-end. Goldman Sachs thinks it could go as low as the low $50s next year. Yet OPEC+ isn’t showing signs of hitting the brakes.

Even with the recent production hikes, Western stockpiles haven’t ballooned yet. That’s where most oil pricing benchmarks are based.

So far, there’s no massive glut, but refiners in Asia are still nervous.

After two straight months of price increases, this price cut might feel like a break. Still, the margin pressure is real, and there’s fear that demand might weaken as winter kills summer travel demand in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East.

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