Iran nuclear deal hopes – ING

The oil market sold off yesterday following comments from President Trump that the US and Iran were moving closer towards a nuclear deal, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

OPEC+ countries are ramping up supply

"A nuclear deal that lifts sanctions will obviously remove a lot of the supply risk hanging over the market for some time now. In addition, it would allow Iran to increase oil output with more willing buyers for its oil. This could result in additional supply in the neighborhood of 400k b/d."

"Concerns over the potential for additional Iranian supply come as OPEC+ are also ramping up supply. In addition, there are plenty of concerns over the demand outlook for the market. This was evident in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly oil market report, released yesterday. The IEA estimates that global oil demand growth will slow from 990k b/d in the first quarter to 650k b/d for the remainder of the year."

"This sees 2025 demand growing by 740k b/d. Slowing growth reflects economic headwinds and strong EV sales. For 2026, the agency expects demand to grow by 760k b/d. The IEA expects supply to grow by 1.6m b/d in 2025 and 970k b/d in 2026. Lower oil prices prodded the IEA to lower its US supply growth estimates for this year and next."