Crude Oil resumes choppy channel, WTI recovers $77.50

• Crude Oil markets continue to pattern into a sideways channel.
• Barrel supplies continue to outpace demand that has failed to materialize.
• Energy markets remain concerned about supply constraints that have yet to occur.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil rebounded on Monday after last week’s near-term decline, and WTI is once again trading back above $77.50 per barrel.

Concerns about global demand rising to outpace global barrel supply on the back of an expected explosion in Chinese Crude Oil demand have fizzled out, but markets remain concerned about barrel supply amidst Middle East geopolitical tensions and production caps from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. According to a recent survey by Bloomberg, many energy market analysts expect OPEC to maintain current production caps through the second quarter in an attempt to keep Crude OIl supply low enough to keep prices high, but record pumping figures from non-OPEC countries, most notably the US, remains a key chink in the armor.

Geopolitical tensions remain high in the Red Sea as Houthis continue to target civilian shipping vessels. Crude Oil markets remain concerned about a possible kink in supply lines between Europe and Asia, keeping barrel bids elevated.

WTI technical outlook

Choppy sideways trading has been the name of the game in WTI US Crude Oil recently. Intraday technicals have been increasingly chopping as US Crude Oil swings from one day to the next but largely remains capped below $79.00.

WTI prices have been hampered by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $77.62, a price that has seen Crude Oil spiral around since falling into the long-term region in November of 2022.

WTI hourly chart

WTI daily chart