WTI Price Forecast: Approaches $100 amid stalled US-Iran peace talks
- The oil price rises to near $95 amid an extended US-Iran diplomacy stalemate.
- The US has canceled the visit of its envoys to Islamabad, calling it a waste of time.
- Iran wants the US to lift the blockade as a precondition to resume negotiations regarding a permanent ceasefire.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 1.5% higher to near $95.00 during the European trading session on Monday. The Oil price gains as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global oil supply, remains closed, due to stalled peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran.
The US-Iran diplomacy stalemate has deepened as Washington called off the US envoys’ visit to Islamabad with Iran, which was scheduled over the weekend, Axios reported. US President Donald Trump canceled the US envoys’ visit to Pakistan, calling it a waste of time, as the counteroffer by Iran's foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, delivered through Pakistan, is not good enough.
Meanwhile, Iran has also offered another proposal whose precondition is the US lifting the blockade of Iranian sea ports.
Market experts have warned that oil prices could rise further as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Under a bull-case scenario, the bank assumes oil flows through the strait remain disrupted through the end of June and sees Brent prices spiking to $150 a barrel. As of writing, Brent Crude Oil trades 2.2% higher to near $101.30.
This week, investors will pay close attention to monetary policy announcements from a number of central banks, especially the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
WTI technical analysis
WTI US Oil trades higher at around $95 at the press time. The spot holds a near-term bullish bias as price stabilizes above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $91.71, keeping the recent rebound intact after the pullback from last week’s highs.
Momentum, as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (14) near 55, leans constructive without being overstretched, suggesting scope for further gains while the market consolidates above short-term trend support.
On the topside, the next key hurdle is the broken downward resistance trend line, with focus around the $100 area, where renewed selling pressure could emerge. Looking down, initial support is seen near the 20-day EMA at $91.71. Broadly, the April 17 low at $78.88 is the key support area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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