Gold falls as USD finds a floor and recovers
- Gold price is weakening on Tuesday on the back of a rise in the US Dollar.
- The USD’s recent decline was due to weak US jobs data, but Fed commentary put a floor under the sell-off.
- Fed policymakers made it clear they are still not in a hurry to cut interest rates, boosting the Greenback.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades down by roughly a third of a percent, in the $2,310s on Tuesday, as the US Dollar (USD) recovers, reducing the cost of Gold which is priced in USD.
Gold price declines on stronger Dollar
Gold price declines on Tuesday after a rebound in the US Dollar reduces the cost of the precious metal in USD terms.
Although last week’s US Nonfarm Payrolls data showed a weakening labor market that suggested the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates sooner than had been anticipated, commentary from Fed members over the last few days continued to show a reluctance by policymakers to hurry lowering borrowing costs.
On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the current interest rate level should cool the economy enough to bring down inflation to the Fed’s 2.0% target but that it would be a "stubborn road back," and that, "It doesn't mean you won't get it back. It just means it takes a while”.
Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams stated that there would be rate cuts eventually and that he saw job growth moderating, but that the Fed would be looking at the “totality” of data before making its decision.
Markets have priced in rate cuts worth 46 basis points (bps) from the Fed by the end of 2024, with the first cut expected in September or November, according to LSEG's rate probability app, according to FXStreet’s Editor Lallalit Srijandorn.
Technical Analysis: Gold price meets resistance at top of range
Gold price (XAU/USD) has retested the ceiling of a mini-range at around $2,326, and retreated. It is currently finding support at around the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the 4-hour chart at $2,317.
XAU/USD 4-hour Chart
Price could potentially pull back further and fall to the base of the range at around $2,280. Support from the 200 SMA and prior lows at around $2,300 could provide an obstacle on the way down.
On the other hand, a decisive break out of the top of the range would signal a likely move up to a conservative target at $2,353 – the top of wave B and the 0.681 Fibonacci extension of the height of the range extrapolated higher. In a bullish case, it could even possibly hit $2,370.
A decisive break would be one characterized by a longer-than-average green candlestick that pierces above the range ceiling, and closes near its high; or three green candlesticks in a row that pierce above the respective level.
Unfinished Measured Move
Gold price is potentially still in the middle of unfolding a bearish Measured Move price pattern which began on April 19.
Measured Moves are zig-zag type patterns composed of three waves labeled A, B and C, with C usually equalling the length of A or a Fibonnaci 0.681 of A. Price has fallen to the conservative estimate for wave C at $2,286, the Fibonacci 0.681 of wave A.
Wave C could still go lower, however, and reach the 100% extrapolation of A at $2,245. Such a move would be confirmed by a decisive break below the range and the May 3 low at $2,277.
The trend for Gold price is up on both the medium and long-term charts (daily and weekly), overall adding a supportive backdraft to the outlook.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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